A 3% return in a little over two months?

A 3% return in a little over two months?

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This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months. Like a 2019 general election I think we’re running out of time to hold one because the logistical challenges of holding an election in the run up to Christmas are insurmountable. To hold a 2019 referendum will require primary legislation and the electoral commission guidelines are that it will around twenty-one weeks from announcing a referendum to actually…

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Just a little bit of history repeating?

Just a little bit of history repeating?

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Who'd make best Prime Minister? Johnson 43% (+2)Corbyn 21% (-)Not sure 32% (-2) Leavers 73-6 for JohnsonWomen 38-20 Johnson18-24 yr olds 32-29 JohnsonWorking class 44-17 JohnsonMiddle class 42-23 JohnsonLondon 32-29 Johnson Put that in your twitter pipe & smoke it … — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 16, 2019 Why I’m not betting on a Tory landslide at the next election. In recent weeks it seems we get regular polling, like the tweet atop this article, on leadership ratings and preferred…

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Boris Johnson complies with the surrender bill, ditches all over the country are feeling lied to now

Boris Johnson complies with the surrender bill, ditches all over the country are feeling lied to now

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Like prorogation this looks like a classic Dom strategy but I expect Boris Johnson to be submissive to the courts early next week https://t.co/pwkQqnJYNp — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2019 It’s likely that this will end up in court on Monday. The case in the Scottish courts may well consider that this doesn’t not comply with the spirit of the Benn Act. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 19, 2019 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185663109761060864 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185664863856664577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalbetting.vanillacommunity.com%2Fdiscussion%2F8086%2Fpoliticalbetting-com-blog-archive-johnson-has-till-11pm-to-send-the-letter-or-else-he-could-face%2Fp7 NEW: No 10 sources tell the Sunday Times that…

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Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

Johnson has till 11pm to send the letter or else he could face contempt of court proceedings

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On Monday the Prime Minister will be ordered by the Court to send the letter and/or the Court will sign it himself. If the Prime Minister does not send the letter by the deadline tonight we *will* bring contempt of court proceedings against him personally. pic.twitter.com/DVQl1DK2g6 — Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) October 19, 2019 There are many battles still to come Apart from the processings taking place in the Scottish courts Johnson’s desire to get the Brexit legislation through the…

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Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas election

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His deal won’t pass, even if the numbers are there Boris Johnson has a problem and it’s not the one that most of the Westminster Village spent yesterday pondering. It is, however, one that gives the lie to the aphorism of the PM’s namesake, the 36th president of the United States, that “the first rule of politics is that its practitioners need to be able to count”. It’s not: that’s the second rule. The first rule is that its practitioners…

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The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

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Betfair have a market up on their exchange tomorrow’s big vote in the Commons and the Betdata.io chart above shows the movement since 1430 this afternoon. As can be seen the betting consensus is moving to the motion getting through. The market rules state that: “ If the House of Commons vote through the government motion on a EU withdrawal agreement then Yes will be settled as a winner. In the event of a tie the market will be settled…

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There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

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The betting odds above from Ladbrokes were correct as at 1345. Things might have changed since. Given how many different views and MPs counts estimates that we are seeing the lack of a clear view on the betting markers is hardly surprising. The outcome is clearly on a knife. What would really add to the drama would have this as a tie with the Speaker making the casting vote just eleven days before he steps down. One thing that hasn’t…

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