The helter-skelter world of WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

The helter-skelter world of WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

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By far the biggest and most active currently political betting market is on who the Democrats will choose as their candidate for the November presidential election. We are currently at a critical stage after having the first two primaries and looking forward to Super Tuesday on March 3rd when more than a dozen states including the two largest, Texas and California, will be making their decisions. By historical standards the size of the field at this stage is very long…

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New poll has Starmer dwarfing Nandy and RLB as the one most likely to win a general election

New poll has Starmer dwarfing Nandy and RLB as the one most likely to win a general election

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After four successive general election defeats the one thing that the Labour movement wants more than anything else is a leader who can lead the party into a general election victory and back to power. Note this was from Opinium’s regular voting poll and is not of the party’s selectorate. So this polling from Opinium hits the nail on the head – Labour wants a winner and Starmer is seen as the one most likely to achieve that. What we…

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Johnson coming under pressure to sack the Number 10 advisor who backs forced sterilisation

Johnson coming under pressure to sack the Number 10 advisor who backs forced sterilisation

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WATCH: Transport secretary Grant Shapps refuses to condemn Andrew Sabisky, a new adviser at No 10 who called for forced sterilisation of young women. #Ridge pic.twitter.com/xaBbXKEfq2 — The Red Roar (@TheRedRoar) February 16, 2020 NEW: Have spoken to multiple special advisers who say they and their cabinet ministers will refuse to work with Andrew Sabisky — they won’t attend meetings where he is present or respond to his emails— they will tell Boris Johnson to overrule Dominic Cummings and sack…

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Who’ll be the Judge? Legitimately elected governments are not excused the obligation to comply with the law

Who’ll be the Judge? Legitimately elected governments are not excused the obligation to comply with the law

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On 11 February, following a court ruling, some Jamaican nationals convicted of serious crimes were not put on their scheduled deportation flight because they had not received legal advice about their deportation. This ruling does not mean that this group will be entitled to stay in the UK. Nor does it mean that the government will not be able to proceed with the deportations. What it does mean is that there will be a pause to allow them to obtain…

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Bernie back as favourite for the Dem nomination

Bernie back as favourite for the Dem nomination

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Washington Post article could be hurting Bloomberg The White House contender who was born three months before Pearl Harbour, Bernie Sanders, is back as the betting favourite for the nomination following a brief period when multi-billionaire, Mike Bloomberg, edged him out. The other big feature has been the collapse in the betting of ex-VP and failure in Iowa and New Hampshire, Jo Biden. This is despite the fact that in several current national polls the ex-VP is still up there….

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Number 10’s power-grab is sowing the seeds of its own failure

Number 10’s power-grab is sowing the seeds of its own failure

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Cummings cannot re-engineer government while ignoring the human aspect Political power is notoriously nebulous. Like fairies, or the value of fiat money, if enough people belief in it, that in itself is enough to call it into being – just as the lack of belief is enough to destroy it. What then gives Boris Johnson the ability to accrete to himself and his advisors in Number Ten powers that no other prime minister has enjoyed? It’s not the size of…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G – L Constituencies)

Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G – L Constituencies)

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It has now been nearly a week since the Irish General Election took place on the 8th of February 2020 and we are still no further on to getting a Dáil government elected. It was pretty much a three way tie with Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil on 38 seats, Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin on 37 seats and Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael on 35 seats. Who is going to be the next Taoiseach and which parties will form the coalition?…

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With the LAB leadership nomination stage coming to an end punters are getting a tad nervous about Starmer

With the LAB leadership nomination stage coming to an end punters are getting a tad nervous about Starmer

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Today marks the end of the second stage of LAB’s leadership election – the period when CLPs and affiliated organisations have made their nominations. As can be seen from the betting chart everything appeared to be going right for ex-DPP and Shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer. Four days ago he reached his peak in the betting a 90% chance. That’s now started to edge down and as can be seen he’s now at 84%. It is hard to say what’s driving…

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