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Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was

19/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This seems a simple thing to do but haven’t seen it anywhere yet so here it is: Labour % vote share change between 2015 and 2019, by seat, giving the “net Corbyn effect” on the Labour share https://t.co/Ls5hW6GQGg — Simon (@simonk_133) February 17, 2020 Many LAB votes on December 12th were in spite of Corbyn not for him After GE2017 many within the Labour movement chose not to regard the outcome as a defeat but as a victory because the…

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A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

19/2/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

If you aren’t worried, you haven’t been paying attention. Recent outbreaks of contagious illnesses – SARS, Ebola, bird flu – have been contained fairly efficiently. So, many have assumed that the same will apply to the coronavirus Covid-19. That’s not inevitable. On such occasions, everyone becomes an instant expert in epidemiology. Let’s try to avoid that and concentrate on what we do, and more importantly, don’t know. We don’t know with any reliability how many cases there are now (China…

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Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

18/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

These are the latest charts from Betdata.io on the next two Democratic primaries in WH2020. Essentially they show how punters who are risking their cash are rating these two races. My own view is that both Biden and Sanders are far too old to be rated as candidates for the presidency and that sooner or later a younger centrist will emerge. At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden…

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My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing

18/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference. I’ve long been watching Klobuchar’s progress closely after putting £8 on her at…

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Sabisky decides to go of his own accord

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Hey all,The media hysteria about my old stuff online is mad but I wanted to help HMG not be a distraction. Accordingly I’ve decided to resign as a contractor. I hope no.10 hires more ppl w/ good geopolitical forecasting track records & that media learn to stop selective quoting — Andrew Sabisky (@AndrewSabisky) February 17, 2020 This saves Boris/Dom an ongoing embarrassment

The helter-skelter world of WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By far the biggest and most active currently political betting market is on who the Democrats will choose as their candidate for the November presidential election. We are currently at a critical stage after having the first two primaries and looking forward to Super Tuesday on March 3rd when more than a dozen states including the two largest, Texas and California, will be making their decisions. By historical standards the size of the field at this stage is very long…

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New poll has Starmer dwarfing Nandy and RLB as the one most likely to win a general election

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After four successive general election defeats the one thing that the Labour movement wants more than anything else is a leader who can lead the party into a general election victory and back to power. Note this was from Opinium’s regular voting poll and is not of the party’s selectorate. So this polling from Opinium hits the nail on the head – Labour wants a winner and Starmer is seen as the one most likely to achieve that. What we…

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Johnson coming under pressure to sack the Number 10 advisor who backs forced sterilisation

16/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

WATCH: Transport secretary Grant Shapps refuses to condemn Andrew Sabisky, a new adviser at No 10 who called for forced sterilisation of young women. #Ridge pic.twitter.com/xaBbXKEfq2 — The Red Roar (@TheRedRoar) February 16, 2020 NEW: Have spoken to multiple special advisers who say they and their cabinet ministers will refuse to work with Andrew Sabisky — they won’t attend meetings where he is present or respond to his emails— they will tell Boris Johnson to overrule Dominic Cummings and sack…

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