Past performance is not a guide to the future. A caveat plastered all over investment products which might usefully be remembered by those anxiously scanning polls or those politicians explaining why the PM’s success in getting a revised Withdrawal Agreement means that he can reach an FTA with the EU before the transition period ends in 385 days time. The steps needed to reach an FTA have not featured much in the election campaign, despite this being meant (once again!)…
Tories drop two overnight on the Commons seat spread markets following the @YouGov MRP findingshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/8rT1Jqrs7X — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2019 The betting markets have now had time to assimilate the YouGov MRP projections and it is interesting to compare the current spreads with what was published last night. The spread on LD seats is out of line with the estimate of 15 seats from YouGov. As can be seen the latest spread has then at 18 SELL…
Emerson IOWA poll BIDEN 23%Sanders 22%Buttigieg 18%Warren 12%Klobuchar 10% All else <5 https://t.co/vZTj4f3KaB — Bill Scher (@billscher) December 11, 2019 My 760/1 WH2020 shot enters the frame My apologies for going off the GE2020 message but for me personally this morning the biggest betting news is this latest poll from Iowa showing that my wild longshot for WH2020, Amy Klobuchar, has now moved up sharply in the Iowa polling and looks set to become a serious contender in the first state…
NEW YouGov MRP Conservative majority of 28 CON 339 (+22)LAB 231 (-31)SNP 41 (+6) LIB 15 (+3) https://t.co/57PHLcUoOK — Henry Zeffman (@hzeffman) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP Headlines ** Tory Majority projected at 28, down from 68** The margin of error means YouGov cannot rule out a hung Parliament** Lab back ahead in Weaver Vale and Watson seat of West Bromwich East — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) December 10, 2019 YouGov / Sky News final MRP…
With tactical voting likely to play a big part on Thursday YouGov has just published some new polling showing that overall a quarter of voters will now be putting their crosses against their first choice. That seems a high figure and reflects the way the GE2019 narrative has revolved. For many Brexit is the overwhelming issue and many appear ready to switch to the party they dislike in order to have the maximum impact. A lot, of course, depends on…
Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019 Tory seats up 4 on last night on the @sportingindex Commons seats spread markethttps://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/TMKBAPq9Tp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019
The final few days of Betfair betting in June 2017 Remember Kinnock at GE1992 It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves what happened last time and how the received opinion of those who risk their money betting on politics got it totally wrong. At exactly this point, 9.20am on the Tuesday beforehand, a CON majority traded at 81% on Betfair. Over the next two and half days it was to go even higher only for things to be brought back to…
Vladimir Bukovsky died recently, in the country he called home after his 1976 expulsion from Russia. He was one of the last Russian dissidents from a time when concerns about Russia related not to its interference in Western elections or its financial links with Western leaders but about the spread of its Communist ideology, its brutal control of Eastern Europe, its appalling treatment of those who protested (incarceration as “insane” in psychiatric jails) or those who wanted to leave (Russian…