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That designated deputy Raab last spoke to Boris on Saturday raises questions of who is running the country

6/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

"I spoke to the PM on Saturday, [that] was the last time I spoke to him," says Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab Boris Johnson is in hospital with "persistent symptoms" of coronavirus https://t.co/OIh7EwyqSR pic.twitter.com/HDmG3ygnUP — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) April 6, 2020 This seems a touch odd – if PM is really in regular touch, and Raab really is in charge, shouldn't they have talked to each other in the last 24 hours ? https://t.co/j5bnc4rId2 — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) April 6,…

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A party fit for purpose

6/4/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The challenges ahead for the new leader Labour has a new leader. And soon a new Shadow Cabinet. Starmer will not be short of advice, most of it unasked for. Momentum have already started. Would that Starmer gives them the answer Attlee gave Harold Laski: “A period of silence from you would be most welcome.” If not, perhaps a link to this tongue lashing from Alan Johnson would do. So let’s join in. Should he go for unity – healing a divided and demoralised party? Magnanimity…

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What happened on Betfair’s next PM market after news of Boris’s hospitalisation came out

6/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There was similar movement on the Johnson exit date market. Raab is Johnson’s designated stand-in. This makes me uneasy about political betting but inevitably some punters will look to anything to turn a buck. I’m also not convinced that the market is reading this right. If there is a need a replacement PM then that would surely be a decision for the whole cabinet. I’m sure everybody on PB wishes Boris a speedy and full recovery. Mike Smithson

Boris admitted to hospital

5/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted to hospital for tests, 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus https://t.co/RhjYRNfpUN — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) April 5, 2020

Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

5/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As Alastair Meeks pointed out this morning Sir Keir Starmer and Labour need a net gain of 124 seats at the next election for a majority so I thought it would be interesting to see how man net gains each Leaders of the Opposition have made at each general election from 1945 onwards. Only three LOTOs have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves…

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The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

5/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

So passes Jeremy Corbyn. He hands over to his successor a party in the doldrums, with just 202 MPs, most representing seats in the largest metropolitan areas. If Labour are to win an overall majority of one at the next election, they will need 124 extra MPs. That would require a uniform national swing of over 10%. Such swings are exceptionally rare. The last time it happened was in 1997. So Labour better hope that Sir Keir is a new…

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On Betfair Starmer becomes the 26% favourite to be next PM

4/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Now that the LAB leadership is settled Starmer has edged up further in the betting for next PM. Clearly he is the main alternative to Johnson but so much could happen between now and the next general election. This is not a market I’ve got involved in because you could be locking cash up for maybe a decade and more before there is a change. A big risk is Johnson could go for whatever reason and be succeeded as PM…

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Starmer gets his LAB victory with 56% of the votes on the first round

4/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In the end it was all a bit down beat. The Labour Party announced at 10:45 a.m. that Starmer had become the next leader at having secured 56% of the votes in the first round thus easily beating Rebecca Long Bailey and Lisa Nandy. As expected Angela Rayner has won the deputy race But instead of making a victory speech to a packed special conference as had been planned the party issued a short video statement from Starmer he had…

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