The second stage of LAB’s leadership race sees Starmer drop a touch but he’s still a very strong betting favourite

The second stage of LAB’s leadership race sees Starmer drop a touch but he’s still a very strong betting favourite

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This is our first look at the Corbyn successor betting since it entered its second stage – the battle for nominations from constituency parties, and affiliated organisations a segment that includes the trade unions. This will continue for more than a month before the ballot packs go out to the party’s selectorate. Contenders have to reach a certain level of nominations to make it to the postal vote. As the chart shows there has been a little bit of levelling…

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It was dislike of Corbyn not Brexit that was the main driver of LAB’s GE2019 losses

It was dislike of Corbyn not Brexit that was the main driver of LAB’s GE2019 losses

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And this was most pronounced in the North and the Midlands If the Opinium survey on the day of the General Election is accurate then the departure of Corbyn, as will happen on April 4th with the new Labour leader, should have a significant impact on the party’s recovery. You can see why Corbyn loyalists anxious to avoid the blame pouring on the their man should want to stick with the theory that LAB had its worst result since 1935…

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A primer on the Iowa caucuses – three weeks today

A primer on the Iowa caucuses – three weeks today

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The Iowa caucuses can play such important part in the nomination process that I thought that the above short feature from CNN was worth putting up simply to explain a political process that really is without parallel in the UK and for that matter in most of the US. What is extraordinary is the seriousness that many Iowans take their role of being the first State to decide to the extent that on a cold February evening they are ready…

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If LAB had held Durham NW then Starmer’s task could have been more challenging

If LAB had held Durham NW then Starmer’s task could have been more challenging

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Pidcock surely would have put up a better fight than RLB At 2:30 this afternoon the first stage of Labour’s election contest will be over. At the moment there are questions over whether Clive Lewis or Emily Thornberry will actually get to the magical 22. If they don’t then they are out. A big feature of this first week has been the less than convincing campaign by RLB the favoured candidate of Corbyn and McDonnell. From her declaring that in…

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Bernie Sanders moves into the favourites slot for the Democratic nomination

Bernie Sanders moves into the favourites slot for the Democratic nomination

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As can be seen from the chart we have a new favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination. The oldest man in the race, the Socialist senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has now edged above Joe Biden in the betting to become the latest favourite. This has been driven by the latest set of polls from the early primary States where Sanders looks set to win both the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd and the New Hampshire primary the…

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The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

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Memo to Mr Corbyn and his supporters: This is what the winning the argument looks like. So no Miss Long-Bailey, Corbyn’s doesn’t deserve 10 out of 10 as a politician unless you’re a Tory. I suspect once Labour come to terms that Blair is the only Labour politician to have won a majority in the 45 years then they will begin their road to recovery. TSE

Looking at when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Conservative Party leader will end

Looking at when Boris Johnson’s tenure as Conservative Party leader will end

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Recent history suggests Boris Johnson will not see out a full term. It seems churlish to be talking about Boris Johnson’s exit date a month after he won a majority of 80 but two out of the last three Conservative leaders to win a majority didn’t see out a full term (and the third one was said to be in office but not power leading to a devastating defeat for the Conservative Party at the next election) so winning a…

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Starmer formally launches his campaign and moves to a 73% chance on Betfair

Starmer formally launches his campaign and moves to a 73% chance on Betfair

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Punters seem to think it is all over The frontrunner in the betting to succeed Corbyn, Keir Starmer, has formally launched his campaign and has seen his position in the betting rise even further. At his launch he was blunt about where LAB stands and the huge challenges ahead. According to the Guardian he said: “We’re focusing on the last general election, (but) we have now lost four general elections in a row. The next one will probably be in…

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