Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

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As Alastair Meeks pointed out this morning Sir Keir Starmer and Labour need a net gain of 124 seats at the next election for a majority so I thought it would be interesting to see how man net gains each Leaders of the Opposition have made at each general election from 1945 onwards. Only three LOTOs have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves…

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The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

The Grand Entrance. Sir Keir Starmer’s electoral challenges

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So passes Jeremy Corbyn.  He hands over to his successor a party in the doldrums, with just 202 MPs, most representing seats in the largest metropolitan areas.  If Labour are to win an overall majority of one at the next election, they will need 124 extra MPs. That would require a uniform national swing of over 10%.  Such swings are exceptionally rare. The last time it happened was in 1997. So Labour better hope that Sir Keir is a new…

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On Betfair Starmer becomes the 26% favourite to be next PM

On Betfair Starmer becomes the 26% favourite to be next PM

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Now that the LAB leadership is settled Starmer has edged up further in the betting for next PM. Clearly he is the main alternative to Johnson but so much could happen between now and the next general election. This is not a market I’ve got involved in because you could be locking cash up for maybe a decade and more before there is a change. A big risk is Johnson could go for whatever reason and be succeeded as PM…

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Starmer gets his LAB victory with 56% of the votes on the first round

Starmer gets his LAB victory with 56% of the votes on the first round

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In the end it was all a bit down beat. The Labour Party announced at 10:45 a.m. that Starmer had become the next leader at having secured 56% of the votes in the first round thus easily beating Rebecca Long Bailey and Lisa Nandy. As expected Angela Rayner has won the deputy race But instead of making a victory speech to a packed special conference as had been planned the party issued a short video statement from Starmer he had…

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Labour’s new leader now has 2-3 months to prepare. How does he – or she – make use of that time?

Labour’s new leader now has 2-3 months to prepare. How does he – or she – make use of that time?

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For an opposition, when you can’t attack, organise Not since the Conservatives’ 2001 leadership contest ended on September 11 that year has such an election been so overshadowed by wider events. Whoever succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader later today will likely find it impossible to take the fight immediately to the Tories. Parliament won’t sit for weeks and when it does return might well be in a muted form, the country as a whole is in a state of…

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Time to take your seats in the Friday PB NightHawks cafe

Time to take your seats in the Friday PB NightHawks cafe

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Come in and join the best late night political conversation on the internet. My impression out on my daily bike ride is that there’s a lot more traffic on the roads with people finding the enforced isolation getting harder to live with. Certainly nerves seem to be getting a bit more frayed. One of the plus sides is the constant stream of funny jokes, pictures and videos that are appearing on my WhatsApp feed. The gallows humour is really excellent…

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The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is that at least there’s scope for improvement

The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is that at least there’s scope for improvement

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Well tomorrow at this time LAB will have its new leader and the suggested negative influence of Corbyn will be no more. The big question is whether the former DPP is able to so present a different proposition to voters that first, the seats lost at GE2019, become prospects again. In a sense the current voting intention polling likely flatters the Tories given how fighting the virus totally dominates everything. The Johnson team is in charge making extraordinary demands of…

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It won’t be Brexit that defines Boris but the decisions he made at the start of the coronavirus crisis

It won’t be Brexit that defines Boris but the decisions he made at the start of the coronavirus crisis

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With the UK death toll rising by the day it is perhaps worth reflecting on the two decisions the government made at the start of the crisis. Firstly there was the reluctance to follow other nations to impose lockdowns straight away after the first death and then there was the agreement to allow this year’s Cheltenham Festival to take place as planned. The argument on the former was the desire to to delay the peak of the outbreak until the…

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