Suddenly the possible economic catastrophe becomes centre stage

Suddenly the possible economic catastrophe becomes centre stage

Comments 0 Comment

The cost of fighting the coronavirus It has always been the case since the the scale of the crisis became clear that making saving lives the priority was going to come at a huge economic cost. The OBR report yesterday with all its projections starts to quantify the challenge ahead and in the meantime the new Chancellor has to find a way of balancing what appears to be the irreconcilable. Sunak starts with a lot of goodwill on his side…

Read More Read More

Welcome to the Tuesday PB Nighthawks cafe

Welcome to the Tuesday PB Nighthawks cafe

Comments 0 Comment

So the lockdown conitnues and looks set to be with us in the UK for at least another three weeks. What is quite remarkable is how well the public, that is all of us, are putting up with it. In fact the polling shows that people in the UK give more backing to the lockdown than in similar countries where the same measure has been put in place. The other big development is the sheer scale of what has been…

Read More Read More

With six and a half months to go till WH2020 Trump is still in negative approval territory

With six and a half months to go till WH2020 Trump is still in negative approval territory

Comments 0 Comment

Unlike in the UK where for less importance is attached to leader ratings the approval numbers for an incumbent US president are generally seen as a good indicator of how the next election is going to shape out. YouGov, which is now very well established in the US, just put out its latest chart showing the trend since just after Trump became president in early 2017 till the present day. What can be seen is that he has had much…

Read More Read More

The lockdown continues to paralyse the country, LAB might have a new leader but the party’s battle over anti-semitism goes on

The lockdown continues to paralyse the country, LAB might have a new leader but the party’s battle over anti-semitism goes on

Comments 0 Comment

What to make of the latest bout of Labour in-fighting? (Or, as it might just as easily have been described: Part 197 of the The People’s Front for Judaea vs The Popular Front of Judaea.) 1.  Corbyn’s allies have been saying for years that allegations of anti-Semitism against Labour Party members, even when true, have been weaponised by his opponents to do him down and derail the Corbynite project. There is an element of truth in this, though the Corbynites have rather…

Read More Read More

Welcome to Easter Monday PB Nighthawks

Welcome to Easter Monday PB Nighthawks

Comments 0 Comment

The first holiday weekend of the coronavirus emergency and I find that I am watching a lot more television and not doing all the things that I hoped I would do. The hard part is simply not knowing that knowing when and how this is going to end. Whatever PB continues. Mike Smithson

Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

Comments 0 Comment

Just a week after becoming Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has this weekend seen his first approval ratings and the numbers are certainly hugely different from those of his predecessor. He starts with an opinion net 26% lead for those saying he’s has their approval against those who say he doesn’t have their approval. The party/referendum vote split will be encouraging for the Starmer camp. He’s clearly doing well amongst LAB remainers and GE2019 LDs and, as the graphic shows…

Read More Read More

In a State: Assessing WH2020

In a State: Assessing WH2020

Comments 0 Comment

Why Trump approval ratings are a better pointer than state polls I do have some fairly strong views on the election. In particular, I would advise you to cast aside state polling on Biden vs Trump and look instead at Trump’s favourability on a state-by-state basis. Why? Because US pollsters use very strict turnout filters. Didn’t vote in Election 2016… well, they largely assume that you won’t vote in 2020. This matters, especially as President Trump didn’t win 2016, Hillary…

Read More Read More

The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

Comments 0 Comment

As someone who has been generally supportive of the government’s handling of Covid-19 I’m despairing at the handling of issues related to PPE and testing, but in this piece I’m going to focus solely on PPE. Up to now the worst accusation from respectable observers at the government is that they listened to their scientists, if that’s the worst accusation to be levelled at the government the government should be fine, however there’s now a danger the issues around PPE…

Read More Read More