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Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

13/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just a week after becoming Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has this weekend seen his first approval ratings and the numbers are certainly hugely different from those of his predecessor. He starts with an opinion net 26% lead for those saying he’s has their approval against those who say he doesn’t have their approval. The party/referendum vote split will be encouraging for the Starmer camp. He’s clearly doing well amongst LAB remainers and GE2019 LDs and, as the graphic shows…

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In a State: Assessing WH2020

13/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Why Trump approval ratings are a better pointer than state polls I do have some fairly strong views on the election. In particular, I would advise you to cast aside state polling on Biden vs Trump and look instead at Trump’s favourability on a state-by-state basis. Why? Because US pollsters use very strict turnout filters. Didn’t vote in Election 2016… well, they largely assume that you won’t vote in 2020. This matters, especially as President Trump didn’t win 2016, Hillary…

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The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

12/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As someone who has been generally supportive of the government’s handling of Covid-19 I’m despairing at the handling of issues related to PPE and testing, but in this piece I’m going to focus solely on PPE. Up to now the worst accusation from respectable observers at the government is that they listened to their scientists, if that’s the worst accusation to be levelled at the government the government should be fine, however there’s now a danger the issues around PPE…

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After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

12/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nemesis followed hubris so quickly for Jo Swinson, they were able to pass the relay baton in the exchange zone. No sooner had she mooted the possibility of her being the next Prime Minister than she found herself dumped out of Parliament. It is a short step from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Lib Dems also went backwards in the seat count. They held 21 before the election, having won 12 in 2017 and benefited from a clump of defections. After the general…

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A dangerous vacuum or duality: A wing and a prayer isn’t good enough when the PM’s ill

11/4/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Britain needs to formalise the role of an Acting PM To talk of death lightly in current circumstances might well seem not only morbid but tasteless. In the midst of a pandemic – one hitting Britain almost as hard as anywhere – leaving many thousands of people bereaved, we obviously need to be sensitive to those considerations. And yet in terms of government, deaths among its own members are in truth a lot easier to handle than serious illness. There…

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Human trials of a coronavirus vaccine could “begin in a fortnight” – The Times

11/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What could turn out to be a very big development is reported on the front page of the Times on the progress that is being made towards developing a vaccine. The prediction on the timings comes from Oxford University’s Professor Sarah Gilbert, who told the paper that she was “80 per cent confident” this could be achieved. The Times report goes on: “The government signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance if…

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The Good Friday PB Nighthawks cafe

10/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the features of the current lockdown is just how thoughtful and generous people are. Shopping is a massive challenge for us at the moment because it is almost impossible to get delivery slots from the supermarket and we cannot countenance the risk of going ourselves Then while we were pondering this neighbours pushed a note through the door saying they’d managed to get a Tesco click and collect slot for tomorrow and could they get things for us….

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If there is a further clampdown it will be on the definition of exercise

10/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the great areas of the shutdown that is open to interpretation is what constitutes exercise – something that you are allowed to do alone or with a member of your household. The logic is sensible. Getting out for a brisk walk, job or cycle ride is likely to make you feel good and less trapped in your home. But how to do you define what exercise is? The above poster has just appeared at the entrance to my…

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