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With six and a half months to go till WH2020 Trump is still in negative approval territory

14/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Unlike in the UK where for less importance is attached to leader ratings the approval numbers for an incumbent US president are generally seen as a good indicator of how the next election is going to shape out. YouGov, which is now very well established in the US, just put out its latest chart showing the trend since just after Trump became president in early 2017 till the present day. What can be seen is that he has had much…

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The lockdown continues to paralyse the country, LAB might have a new leader but the party’s battle over anti-semitism goes on

14/4/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

What to make of the latest bout of Labour in-fighting? (Or, as it might just as easily have been described: Part 197 of the The People’s Front for Judaea vs The Popular Front of Judaea.) 1. Corbyn’s allies have been saying for years that allegations of anti-Semitism against Labour Party members, even when true, have been weaponised by his opponents to do him down and derail the Corbynite project. There is an element of truth in this, though the Corbynites have rather…

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Welcome to Easter Monday PB Nighthawks

13/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The first holiday weekend of the coronavirus emergency and I find that I am watching a lot more television and not doing all the things that I hoped I would do. The hard part is simply not knowing that knowing when and how this is going to end. Whatever PB continues. Mike Smithson

Even Tory leavers are giving Starmer positive approval ratings

13/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just a week after becoming Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has this weekend seen his first approval ratings and the numbers are certainly hugely different from those of his predecessor. He starts with an opinion net 26% lead for those saying he’s has their approval against those who say he doesn’t have their approval. The party/referendum vote split will be encouraging for the Starmer camp. He’s clearly doing well amongst LAB remainers and GE2019 LDs and, as the graphic shows…

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In a State: Assessing WH2020

13/4/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Why Trump approval ratings are a better pointer than state polls I do have some fairly strong views on the election. In particular, I would advise you to cast aside state polling on Biden vs Trump and look instead at Trump’s favourability on a state-by-state basis. Why? Because US pollsters use very strict turnout filters. Didn’t vote in Election 2016… well, they largely assume that you won’t vote in 2020. This matters, especially as President Trump didn’t win 2016, Hillary…

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The government needs to sort out the PPE issues or it will be seen as wilfully incompetent, or worse

12/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As someone who has been generally supportive of the government’s handling of Covid-19 I’m despairing at the handling of issues related to PPE and testing, but in this piece I’m going to focus solely on PPE. Up to now the worst accusation from respectable observers at the government is that they listened to their scientists, if that’s the worst accusation to be levelled at the government the government should be fine, however there’s now a danger the issues around PPE…

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After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

12/4/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nemesis followed hubris so quickly for Jo Swinson, they were able to pass the relay baton in the exchange zone. No sooner had she mooted the possibility of her being the next Prime Minister than she found herself dumped out of Parliament. It is a short step from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Lib Dems also went backwards in the seat count. They held 21 before the election, having won 12 in 2017 and benefited from a clump of defections. After the general…

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A dangerous vacuum or duality: A wing and a prayer isn’t good enough when the PM’s ill

11/4/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Britain needs to formalise the role of an Acting PM To talk of death lightly in current circumstances might well seem not only morbid but tasteless. In the midst of a pandemic – one hitting Britain almost as hard as anywhere – leaving many thousands of people bereaved, we obviously need to be sensitive to those considerations. And yet in terms of government, deaths among its own members are in truth a lot easier to handle than serious illness. There…

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