Jumping at shadows

Jumping at shadows

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April is the cruellest month. At least, that is what the authorities hope. The government has carefully signalled that it intends to begin a slow relaxation of the lockdown, if Britain continues to move out of its total eclipse by Covid-19 into a penumbral recuperation from the most ferocious aspects of its onslaught. The government has to wrestle with two conflicting risks when making its decision. If Britain comes out of lockdown too early, it might risk a resurgence of Covid-19. If it waits…

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We’re going through an odd period in the leader ratings – both the PM and Starmer are positive across the board

We’re going through an odd period in the leader ratings – both the PM and Starmer are positive across the board

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Which will be first to go negative? As regular PBers will know  I am a great fan of leader ratings as to pointers to political outcomes. At the last election in December Labour was always doomed while Corbyn struggled to get out of the worst set of ratings that any opposition leader has ever seen. Now his successor is going through his honeymoon and is positive ratings which are far in excess what Corbyn achieved in his five and a…

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No, don’t look to a non-Trump/Biden winner

No, don’t look to a non-Trump/Biden winner

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Biden in particular is great odds against ludicrously short Dem alternatives Unusual things happen. Fringe scenarios occur and outsiders find ways to win races they aren’t even in. Even so, for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be odds against to win the 2020 US presidential election when both are their party’s nominee-elect is pretty extraordinary. True, Trump is only just odds-against on the Betfair exchange, at 2.08 to back but Biden is right out at 2.42 at the…

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The armed, Trump-backed, lockdown protestors who are helping build the profile of possible Biden VP pick, Gretchen Whitmer

The armed, Trump-backed, lockdown protestors who are helping build the profile of possible Biden VP pick, Gretchen Whitmer

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The efforts to combat COVID-19 have divided America and overnight saw extraordinary scenes when hundreds of protesters, many of them armed, burst into Michigan’s state capitol to object to plans to extend the state of emergency in the state. The State’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has incurred the wrath of Trump for not being appreciative enough of his efforts. The idea that anybody armed to the hilt could enter a parliament building while it was in session is quite extraordinary…

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Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

Thinking the Unthinkable – how’s this going to be paid for?

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We cannot go back to how we were This is the reaction of many to the pandemic, now stalking many lands. Globalisation – at least as enjoyed over the last few decades – is over, a reset of relations with China, a change to the state’s role to the chagrin of those wanting a small state, low taxes, free markets, borders will not be as open as before etc.,. Well, some or all of this is probably true. Big events…

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New COVID19 polling finds two thirds of Brits saying that the government acted too late

New COVID19 polling finds two thirds of Brits saying that the government acted too late

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But fewer are concerned about the individual threat Whenever this is all over, and who can predict that, it is clear that the events of the past three months and the actions of ministers are set to have a big impact on domestic politics. Pollster Ipsos-MORI has been asking tracker questions and we can see from the two charts above how things have moved. The worrying one for Team Boris is the growing percentage who think that action was taken…

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