politicalbetting.com – Page 557 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Food, Glorious Food!

7/6/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Covid-19 and a prolonged lockdown have bought us few good things. There are some, though:- A cleaner, less polluted environment. It may be temporary but what joy there is in having clear quiet skies, bird song you can hear, cleaner air. The importance of local food, strong resilient supply chains and food security. Empty shelves and foodstuffs unobtainable, whether for love or money, have been an unwelcome surprise. The importance and value of treating animals, especially those we farm and…

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Patched with virtue. Britain’s historical legacy and how black lives matter

7/6/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Hong Kong has been much in the news recently, with the Chinese government looking to unilaterally set aside part of the “two systems” approach that it agreed to when Britain ceded it in 1997 by imposing new national security laws on it. British public opinion is rightly deeply concerned. The British government has offered Hong Kongers with a British National Overseas passport the right to live and work in the UK. This is an admirable and principled stance by the…

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Starmer moves to a 35% net approval lead over Johnson while all three polls tonight have the voting gap getting very close

6/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And Boris only 1% clear as best PM It has been a big night of polling with three new surveys all showing the Conservative lead over Labour getting narrower. The voting numbers are: Opinium CON: 43% (-) LAB: 40% (+1) LD: 6% (-) SNP: 5% (-) GRN: 3% (-) Survation, CON 41% (-4) LAB 39% (+5) LD 7% (-1) GRN 4% (-) SNP 4% (-) BXP 1% (+1) Deltapoll CON 41% (-2) LAB 38% (-) LD 8% (-) OTH 13%…

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The case for making “personality” ratings a good electoral indicator

6/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot from isam Last month, Keir Starmer appeared on the television in my front room to give his response to the Prime Minister’s Covid-19 statement. A few seconds later my eyes glazed over, a few more passed and I switched the tv off saying “Jesus, he is dull”. It set me thinking that in a world of Reality tv, tiktok, snapchat, (none of which I am a fan of), and general instant gratification, (which I kind of am)…

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Trump 2024: the game’s changed and a third term is possible

6/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The norms, expectations and opportunities of American politics are changing Let’s get ahead of ourselves. I do not expect Donald Trump to win a second term and neither do punters betting hard cash. At the time of writing, he was just over 2.2 on Betfair to win November’s election and marginally odds against with traditional bookies. I think that’s still a bit short. Trump’s job approval figures have just dropped to a seven-month low (albeit within quite a small range),…

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A Tale of Two Lawyers

5/6/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

L’Affaire Cummings is over, its lasting significance, if any, yet to be determined. But there is one aspect of it, largely ignored by the media, worth exploring. It relates not to the PM or his advisor but to the Government’s two main legal advisors: the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, and the Lord Chancellor/Secretary of State for Justice, Robert Buckland. First, a brief explanation. The Lord Chancellor is responsible for the justice system: the courts, prisons and probation services, some of the…

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Another pollster has Johnson dropping sharply in its leader ratings while Starmer takes a net lead

5/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Can Boris get back to where he was? Ipsos-MORI, Britain’s oldest polling firm, has just produced its latest leader ratings and the trend is very similar to what we’ve seen from other pollsters. Johnson has taken a hit while Starmer has continued to rise. Clearly the PM’s lack of action over the Cummings lockdown road trip affair continues to grate with voters. With Starmer there are fewer don’t knows which are splitting in favour or the new LAB leader. This…

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In praise of Boris – the cycling enthusiast

5/6/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Getting people on bikes could be his and the pandemic’s great legacy What might be looked back on as one of the biggest decisions when the lockdown was being introduced in March was to include bike shops amongst the retailers that were specifically allowed to remain open. Quite what role Boris had in that move I don’t know but it is hard to see that exception being made if someone else had been elected Tory leader last year. The impact…

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