Biden’s VP choice: Klobuchar, 2nd favourite in the betting less than a month go, has withdrawn from being considered

Biden’s VP choice: Klobuchar, 2nd favourite in the betting less than a month go, has withdrawn from being considered

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She says a person of colour should be chosen The big political betting news is a piece in the New York Times reporting that Senator Amy Klobuchar has written to Joe Biden saying she doesn’t want to be considered for the Democratic VP nomination. As the Betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows Klobuchar was 24% second favourite less than a month ago. The paper reports: Ms. Klobuchar, a moderate and veteran of the Senate like Mr. Biden, was known…

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Facebook takes down Trump ads for violating policy against organised hate

Facebook takes down Trump ads for violating policy against organised hate

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In a move that seems unprecedented Facebook has taken down Trump ads infringing the sites policies against organized hate. This looks like a big pointer to how it will operate at WH2020 where the giant social media site was expected to play a huge role. The ads involved are said to have attacked what the Trump campaign described as “Dangerous MOBS of far-left groups,” featured an upside-down triangle. It is said the triangle “is practically identical to that used by…

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Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos-MORI Podcast: How does Starmer make it to Number 10?

Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos-MORI Podcast: How does Starmer make it to Number 10?

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On the inaugural Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ayesha Hazarika, Alastair Campbell and the Ipsos-MORI Chief Executive Ben Page to discuss historic poll ratings for the new Labour leader and where the Labour Party go from here after a historic defeat in December. You can listen to the podcast below: Keiran Pedley Keiran, who used to run the Politicalbetting/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PB. He is now Research Director, Public Affairs, at…

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Trump launches big legal challenge to try to block memoir by former National Security Advisor John Bolton

Trump launches big legal challenge to try to block memoir by former National Security Advisor John Bolton

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The revelations make Trump’s WH2020 re-election challenge even harder The big news in the White House race overnight are the first revelations from a book that’s just about to be published by John Bolton – who served as the National Security Advisor for seventeen months. What makes this very different from other memoirs on the Trump presidency is that it comes from someone at the very top who was closely involved in observing the President’s foreign policy dealings at first…

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The latest ads from a campaign to turn Republicans against Trump

The latest ads from a campaign to turn Republicans against Trump

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This one is particularly important because Senator Lindsay Graham has emerged as the main attack dog for Trump. It very much undermines what he is trying to do now as part of helping the President get re-elected. This is potentially a powerful line of attack on Trump raising questions over the President’s health and ,mental capacity.

Trumpity Trump: Why Betting on Biden is the right strategy

Trumpity Trump: Why Betting on Biden is the right strategy

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The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night. Why? Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016….

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On the day the Premiership returns the big political story is the Johnson meal voucher U-turn following a campaign by a leading footballer

On the day the Premiership returns the big political story is the Johnson meal voucher U-turn following a campaign by a leading footballer

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And Cameron’s GE2010 pension “triple lock” could be suspended The big political news for the tabloids is the huge concession that Boris Johnson has made over the provision of meal vouchers to a million plus poor children. This followed an intervention by the Manchester United footballer Marcus Rashford. The move coincides with the resumption of professional football today albeit with the remaining Premiership matches being played behind closed doors. The climb down from the government followed an emotional letter to…

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Joe Biden says Trump will have to be “escorted from the White House” if he’s not re-elected

Joe Biden says Trump will have to be “escorted from the White House” if he’s not re-elected

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One of the increasing worries about November’s US Presidential election is that Trump might not willingly leave the White House if he fails to get re-elected. The Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, is already starting to talk publicly about this concern which has been raised by many others – see the interview with Trevor Noah linked to above. The timing is interesting. The election takes place on November 2nd but the winner will have to wait until the inauguration…

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