Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

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The one poll we get every week is by Opinium for the Observer – a pollster that provide some of the best cross tabs for analysis. Because there can be such a high margin of error in taking the splits from one poll I have gone through all four polls that were published by Populus during this month and the figures shown are the average. The part of the surveys I have focussed on are the net approval ratings for…

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With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

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When former Environment Cabinet minister last ran for the Lib Dem leadership just over a year ago he had big obstacle to surmount – his gender. There was a strong view in the party that then was the time for first female leader and my sense was that Davey felt this as well. He went through the motions but at least his decision to run meant that there was a contest. This time I’ve observed a very different Ed Davey…

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Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

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Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016. My initial hunch is not to back this bet even though Ladbrokes are offering 1/7 on the Democratic Party candidate winning the popular vote by any margin (Betfair are offering close to 2/11 before…

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We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

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With Joe Biden totally dominating the next President polls the next big moment in WH2020 looks set to be the announcement of who is to be his running mate. Biden has already made it clear that it will be a woman and a lot of the betting is going on it being an African American. The names seem to come and go and that’s reflected in the betting. What is making this harder is that his campaign is giving lots…

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Print journalism needs a revolution to avoid a slow death: micro-payments are the way forward

Print journalism needs a revolution to avoid a slow death: micro-payments are the way forward

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But it will only work with industry-wide collaboration When did you last buy a newspaper? I’ve no idea when I did. It was certainly before this year and then will have been the local weekly; I haven’t bought a national paper in years – why would you? I do subscribe to a hard-copy weekly magazine (which also brings with it online access to their articles), but that’s a different thing I’m not alone. In the last ten years, The Times…

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The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50 million of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day

The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50 million of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day

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What having a controversial figure in the White House does to the betting Above is a screenshot of the Betfair market on who will be next president. We’ve talked about the odds on this for well over a year but what is striking this afternoon is how close the total matched is to £50m. That we should get to that sort of total with more than 3 months to go until November 2nd is quite extraordinary and this will almost…

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Let us not forget how much Corbyn contributed to Johnson’s GE2019 victory

Let us not forget how much Corbyn contributed to Johnson’s GE2019 victory

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This week’s out of court settlement of the case between the LAB party and some of its former employees has put the spotlight once again on former leader Corbyn who twice led to the party to general election defeats. The decision by Corbyn himself to attack the party over this is a reflection that Labour’s internal wars are ongoing. A real problem that the Corbyn backers have to acknowledge is that their man was the main driver of votes switching…

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