As we head into August the impact on holidays becomes the big pandemic story

As we head into August the impact on holidays becomes the big pandemic story

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Have ministers panicked? Today’s front pages give a good representation of the main pandemic stories and what the papers think are the issues most likely to impact on their readers. Once again the Daily Star manages to produce the most striking front page and that paper is to my mind having the best pandemic. So often it is taking the most eye-catching and humorous approach which is very much in the spirit of the early days of the tabloid Sun….

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Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats that should be LAB’s main targets

Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats that should be LAB’s main targets

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This chart is a follow up to the one on the previous header which looked at the PM’s approval ratings by what happened at GE2019 in groups of constituencies. As can be seen the Starmer approval ratings follow the same pattern with Corbyn’s successor getting positive numbers across the board but doing least well in those seats which were gained by the Tories at GE2019. Note that this isn’t just from one poll but the average for each group from…

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Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

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The one poll we get every week is by Opinium for the Observer – a pollster that provide some of the best cross tabs for analysis. Because there can be such a high margin of error in taking the splits from one poll I have gone through all four polls that were published by Populus during this month and the figures shown are the average. The part of the surveys I have focussed on are the net approval ratings for…

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With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

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When former Environment Cabinet minister last ran for the Lib Dem leadership just over a year ago he had big obstacle to surmount – his gender. There was a strong view in the party that then was the time for first female leader and my sense was that Davey felt this as well. He went through the motions but at least his decision to run meant that there was a contest. This time I’ve observed a very different Ed Davey…

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Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

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Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016. My initial hunch is not to back this bet even though Ladbrokes are offering 1/7 on the Democratic Party candidate winning the popular vote by any margin (Betfair are offering close to 2/11 before…

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We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

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With Joe Biden totally dominating the next President polls the next big moment in WH2020 looks set to be the announcement of who is to be his running mate. Biden has already made it clear that it will be a woman and a lot of the betting is going on it being an African American. The names seem to come and go and that’s reflected in the betting. What is making this harder is that his campaign is giving lots…

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