Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

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We’ve now got the timetable for the LD leadership race and the successor to Jo Swinson will be announced at the end of August. It looks as though the race will be between Layla Moran and Ed Davey with Daisy Cooper as possibly another candidate. The elections was due to have been underway now but has been deferred because of the pandemic. In the aftermath of Jo Swinson unexpectedly losing her seat to the SNP in the general election the…

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WH2020: Punters still not fully convinced that it’ll be Trump v Biden

WH2020: Punters still not fully convinced that it’ll be Trump v Biden

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Either can be had at longer than evens The chart shows the latest betting on who will be the next President in Betfair’s now £30m market. The amount that’s been gambled so far is by far a record this far out but the interesting thing is that the uncertainty that still remains over who is going to be heading the ticket for either side. By contrast the other big market on WH2020 outcome on which will be the winning party…

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Starmer’s ratings are generally getting better as the number of don’t knows declines

Starmer’s ratings are generally getting better as the number of don’t knows declines

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We are now in the 7th week of Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party and he could take some comfort about the general direction of his leader ratings which historically have been a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention polling. When Starmer first got the job on April 4th he was relatively unknown and that was reflected in the smallish proportion of those polled who had an opinion. Thus in his first week just 42% of those…

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Does this Indy writer have a point – is Boris now really that vulnerable and will be out by Christmas?

Does this Indy writer have a point – is Boris now really that vulnerable and will be out by Christmas?

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The above article has been posted this afternoon on The Independent website and puts forward what Sir Humphrey would describe as a ” very courageous” prediction. Sure Boris has not had the best of times leading a government facing the pandemic and sure the UK’s comparative record has not been that great. O’Grady notes in his piece:- “Every bumbling performance at prime minister’s questions, each stumbling appearance at a coronavirus media conference, each bit of misguided spin that emanates from Downing Street,…

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Chancellor Sunak’s looking strong in the polling – HomeSec Patel a liability

Chancellor Sunak’s looking strong in the polling – HomeSec Patel a liability

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Just over five months after GE2019 – how Johnson and his top team are being rated The chart above is based on the latest favourably polling by YouGov a series that I had a hand in creating a few years back. Of all the leader rating formats the one I like the best is on favourability. I think its simple directness gives a better view than leader satisfaction or approval. After all I’m sure many Tory backers at GE2019 if…

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Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

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In recent weeks the Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, has appeared to be falling back in the race to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democrats at the White House election in November. In the betting she’s now dropped to third favourite behind Harris and Klobuchar. A big problem is that if she became VP she could no longer serve as a senator and for a few months the decision on who should represent state in her position would…

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The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

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Baby it’s cold outside. And don’t the public know it. The government’s Stay Home, Stay Safe campaign has been stunningly effective. A large chunk of the public is now firmly committed to Staying Home and Saving Lives.  They aren’t going to stop doing that just because a mere Prime Minister tells them otherwise. They’re having the mother of all duvet days. This is now becoming a problem. The government needs the economy to revive as soon as possible. It can only do so…

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How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

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Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one.  The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time.  The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019.   But is that true?  In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields?   Serial autocorrelation defined If…

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