The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

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The president’s polling retains a rock-hard ceiling, too low At the start of February, Donald Trump looked well set for re-election. True, his personal ratings weren’t great and nor were his head-to-heads against both Biden and Sanders, the two Democrats who’d shared the lead in the race for their party’s nomination for the previous three months. Even so, the economy was roaring ahead with record job numbers, America was near-enough out of foreign wars, and the attempt to impeach him…

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Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

Time to be betting on Biden in Texas where new poll has him 3% ahead

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A Data for Progress poll on the White House race in Texas, the second biggest state, has Biden leading Trump by 48% to 45%. This follows a Public Policy Polling survey yesterday that had Biden 1% ahead. In other recent polls over the past few days the Trump lead has been down to just 1%. This has prompted me to make my biggest bet so far of WH2020 – backing Biden on Betfair at 4.5 Of the states that might just…

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Another leading Republican declares for Biden

Another leading Republican declares for Biden

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What is significant here is that his state, Michigan, was one of those that swung to Trump at WH2016 and is an an absolute must win for Biden/Harris. Moves similar to Snyder’ are being seen almost daily by prominent Republican who don’t have the stomach to back the incumbent. The question is whether this will have an impact on other party supporters from last time. Those who make a stand are likely to prompt a stream of abuse from Trump.

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

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The Spread Betting firm SportingIndex has now got up its WH2020 markets and the early prices have Biden on 281 ECVs which is 11 above the number required. This is a form of betting that lends itself well to elections because if you “BUY BIDEN” at the stated level the more ECVs he secures the more money that you will make. Alas it works the other way if you get it wrong. The more you are wrong the more you…

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Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday

Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday

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Time to bet that he won’t make it as PM until the next general election? I first began reporting professionally as a journalist on PMQs in 1972 when I was part of the small team that produced the “Today in Parliament” programme for BBC Radio 4. Three years later I was one of the editors that handled the parliamentary broadcasting experiment that was the forerunner of the proceedings of the House being broadcast on radio and then later television. These…

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Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump

Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump

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This has been a huge day on the White House race betting markets which saw, for the first time in months, Trump becoming the favourite on the Betfair exchange where so far nearly there have been nearly £72m worth of matched bets. Heaven know what the total will look like by November 3rd. As I write Trump is at a 47% chance on Betfair with Biden on 51% There’s a growing view amongst punters that Biden is nothing like the…

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Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now longer than evens

Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now longer than evens

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Neither nominee is convincing punters Above are the the overnight odds on the £70m “Next President” market on the Betfair exchange. Given that this is a two horse race it really is quite extraordinary that punters are rating both their chances as longer than evens even if only by a fraction. Both men, of course, are in the mid-70s, (Trump’s 74 Biden 77) and there must be an increased actuarial possibility that at least one might not make it across…

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