politicalbetting.com – Page 531 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Johnson can’t go on being as dire at PMQs as he was yesterday

3/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Time to bet that he won’t make it as PM until the next general election? I first began reporting professionally as a journalist on PMQs in 1972 when I was part of the small team that produced the “Today in Parliament” programme for BBC Radio 4. Three years later I was one of the editors that handled the parliamentary broadcasting experiment that was the forerunner of the proceedings of the House being broadcast on radio and then later television. These…

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Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump

2/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This has been a huge day on the White House race betting markets which saw, for the first time in months, Trump becoming the favourite on the Betfair exchange where so far nearly there have been nearly £72m worth of matched bets. Heaven know what the total will look like by November 3rd. As I write Trump is at a 47% chance on Betfair with Biden on 51% There’s a growing view amongst punters that Biden is nothing like the…

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Extraordinary. The betting odds on both Biden and Trump now longer than evens

2/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Neither nominee is convincing punters Above are the the overnight odds on the £70m “Next President” market on the Betfair exchange. Given that this is a two horse race it really is quite extraordinary that punters are rating both their chances as longer than evens even if only by a fraction. Both men, of course, are in the mid-70s, (Trump’s 74 Biden 77) and there must be an increased actuarial possibility that at least one might not make it across…

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Sunak continues to defy gravity in YouGov’s favourability ratings

1/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov have just updated their favourability trackers and as can be seen the Chancellor continues to ride supreme although still a long way down from his net plus 49% just at the start of lockdown. He, of course, has been making many of the key lockdown announcements on things like the hugely expensive furlough scheme and, of course, the changes on VAT and last month the cheap meals offer. It is the way he is seen, as portrayed in these…

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Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead

1/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

AT WH2016 the military went for Trump over Clinton by almost two to one Given some of the noises coming from the Oval Office at the moment this poll of men and women serving in the US military could be hugely significant for Trump who seems to have lost the support of active service troops. What makes this very important is that last time the 2016 Military Times Poll, found twice as many respondents said they planned to vote for Trump…

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We could be heading for crossover in the next PM betting

31/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Sunak surges and Starmer slips Quite what is driving the betting is hard to say but Chancellor Sunak has moved sharply and as I write (2100 BST) is only 1% behind the LAB leader. Of course everything in this market depends on whether there is a change of Prime Minister before the general election or afterwards. For it is hard to see Sir Keir Starmer getting the job without securing enough MPs – and the only development that can do…

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WH2020: Latest polling from Biden’s three must win states

31/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Michigan 16 Electoral College votes Wisconsin 10 Electoral College votes Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral College votes We are now just two months away from the US Presidential elections and rather than focus on national polling I thought it would be useful to review every so often how things are going in the key swing states that the Democrats need to win in order to unseat Trump in November. We all know each state is a separate battleground with couple of…

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As Biden moves to evens on Betfair new Ipsos WH2020 poll has him leading Trump by 15% on favourability

30/8/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

There’s a new ABC News/Ipsos WH2020 poll out with its first leadership ratings since the end of the conventions. As can be seen above Biden has moved 46% favourable in the latest poll which is up 6% over three weeks ago. He’s also seen his unfavourable numbers decline. Trump has gone the other way. He’s slipped from 35% favourable three weeks ago to 30% in this latest poll. His unfavourable ratings have remained pretty constant. I regard leader ratings as…

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