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The WH2020 early voting trends suggest that we could see a record turnout

16/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is this good for Trump or Biden? Thanks to Michael McDonald who is collating all the published data on early voting and producing regular updates on his website which has enabled me to produce the chart above. Each state operates this differently so what’s available on the public record is not constant but we do have have from many states figures on the number of votes that have actually been cast by mail and at polling stations. We also have…

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Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

15/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week’s bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year. Listen…

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A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

15/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Rachel Ormston of Ipsos MORI Scotland and Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh look at the numbers. The story of Labour’s woes in Scotland is by now a familiar one. Having dominated elections in Scotland from the mid-1960s to the mid-2000s, the notion that they would return only one Scottish MP was once inconceivable. Yet in 2015, that is exactly what happened – a fate that was to befall them again in 2019, when, following a very poor showing…

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The Pressure of the Populist Right

15/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Oscar Wilde once claimed: “I never travel without my diary. One should always have something sensational to read in the train.” My thread headers are, I must admit, less riveting than that. Still, they have their moments. Three years ago, I wrote about the UKIP leadership contest to replace Paul Nuttall. The candidates formed a crew that one is compelled to describe as motley. One candidate sought to mine the asteroids, while another was a survivalist who had once been shocked by a gay…

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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

14/10/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

“Circuit breaker”, “Lockdown 2”, “Tier 3 restrictions” – there’s no end to the descriptions being given to the steps being proposed by politicians in all 4 corners of the kingdom to the steps they want taken to stop the virus spreading further. So, presumably, they have clear answers to the following questions:- How Long For? The last lockdown was initially stated to be for 3 weeks. It ended up nearer 4 months and has yet to be lifted for some…

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New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

14/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum. Key points from the poll: Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say…

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The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

14/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It is that gap with women that’s so tough for the incumbent One of the great things that happened in the early days of PB (before GE2005) was the creation of the British Polling Council which placed requirements on pollsters to make available certain key data within a fixed time period after the publication of a poll. This is voluntary but political pollsters know that they will struggle to make an impact unless they are BPC compliant. We now take…

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The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate

13/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If you are betting remember to check the bookies’ rules The above Economist video gives a good analysis for those punters who plan to have a bet on on the race to control the US senate – which is being voted on at the same time as the President three weeks today. This is almost as critical as the Presidency because the Republicans have been blocking so much of what has been agreed by the House. At the moment the…

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