Crisis Management: EU-style

Crisis Management: EU-style

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An object lesson on how not to deal with a problem The EU Commission has given us a quite astonishing master-class in the last few days of how not to deal with a problem: panic, untrue or incomplete public statements, trying to negotiate in public, invitations sounding like threats, displays of wounded amour propre, petulant complaining, shrill demands, recourse to legal arguments, followed by peremptory action taken without proper consultation with those affected, only to be withdrawn – somewhat humiliatingly –…

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LADBROKES tighten the odds on Sturgeon NOT being the First Minister by the end of the year

LADBROKES tighten the odds on Sturgeon NOT being the First Minister by the end of the year

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New revelations on the Salmond exit add to her problems The controversial events over Alec Salmond departure from the party continue to pose problems for Sturgeon. The Telegraph is reporting that SNP ministers got legal advice from a top QC ‘ that it would lose the Alex Salmond judicial review which it proceeded with. This and other issues are impacting on the betting. Having been a 9/4 shot earlier this morning that Sturgeon would not to survive the year Ladbrokes…

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Starmer, not up to it?

Starmer, not up to it?

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As I noted in the previous thread that looking at the supplementary questions in polls are often much more useful pointers than headline voting intention figures and this is another supplementary that caught my attention in light of the pandemic and the UK having such appalling death figures related to Covid-19. During, what one hopes is, a once in a century pandemic Labour would hope their leader would be the person best equipped to hold the government to account. Instead…

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Tracking Covid

Tracking Covid

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Will the voters think the vaccine rollout doesn’t forgive the high death toll beforehand? I find the this polling very interesting because recent experiences over the last decade has shown leadership ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, which is why I look at the supplementaries with a fine-tooth comb. Opinium, in their poll published last night, found something similar to the YouGov findings above. The public think the government has continued…

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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite

Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite

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Time to look ahead to 2022 No incumbent French president has won re-election since the terms were reduced from seven years to five. Granted, there are not many examples – two – on which to base what might appear to be if not a rule of thumb then certainly a trend. But nor is the Élysée exactly a secure base from which to a presidential campaign (compare here with the American presidency). So why is Emmanuel Macron such short odds…

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In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with YouGov

In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with YouGov

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Even though the UK is now fully out of the EU there’s been almost no movement in YouGov’s Brexit tracker which has been asked at least twice a month since 2016. The latest figures are in the chart above and as can be seen those saying Brexit was right still trail those saying it was wrong by 8%. Until the row over the AZC vaccine the UK’s exit at the start of this month has been totally overshadowed by COVID…

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