The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

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Richard Tyndall on the Australian government move against Facebook So one day, when this terrible virus is finally under some semblance of control, we will be able to go back to the pub. We will be able to do something that we have been unable to do for far too long – socialise face to face with our friends. Hopefully we will be able to resurrect the Political Betting pub nights and prove to each other we really are human…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

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Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

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A cautious approach could be politically more challenging With COVID rates halving every two weeks, and cases looking to drop below 1,000 a day by the second week of April the Mail continues its pressure on the PM over his plans to ease the lockdown. This is going to be a highly tricky for the prime minister who is known to take a very liberal approach when it comes to imposing new regulations on the public. But the last thing…

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Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

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Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an MoD decision to return medals to military personnel dismissed for their sexuality (though actual financial compensation for their treatment seems to be beyond the current government). A virulently ambitious Conservative politician has found it necessary to perform a volte…

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Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

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A big development overnight in the fight against COVID has been the news that the death rate amongst the over 80s has dropped a massive 62% in a month. This group, of course, was first in line for the jab and this figure really underlines the success of the government’s big gamble last summer to ensure rapid early supplies of vaccines. But this good news is going to make the decisions on the next stage of lockdown that much harder….

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For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

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But still the “not sures” are in the lead One of the most extraordinary polling trends that hasn’t been commented on that much is seen in the above YouGov table of its best prime minister ratings. For until Boris Johnson came on the scene it was almost a racing certainty that the incumbent Prime Minister would top responses to this question and, indeed, just ten months ago Johnson had leads of up 24%. Of the pollsters that ask this regularly…

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IN (FEINT) PRAISE OF URSULA VON DER LEYEN

IN (FEINT) PRAISE OF URSULA VON DER LEYEN

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Who would have guessed that a month and a half after Britain finally left the European Single Market and Customs Union that it would be the European Commission President who is under the most pressure with some calls for her to resign? Or that German press could be leading with headlines like “the best advert for Brexit”? The EU’s vaccine debacle has certainly become the main international story which has led to a renewed focus on the politician who heads…

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Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

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Biden is enjoying just about the best honeymoon in ratings terms compared with any other of the Presidents in the last 28 years. The figures are from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey and the comarative numbers are in the panel above. These show the opening ratings from the pollster and the best number that each of the five achieved. On the latter measure George W Bush’s astonishing 85% came in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in…

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