The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

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Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be. At the moment just about the total focus of the new administration has been on filling the key cabinet places and of course dealing with the COVID pandemic. One thing we do know however is that the new President will be attending the meeting of the G7 which is scheduled to be held in Cornwall in June. So assuming he goes…

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While we wait for Johnson’s “road map” is Carrie the one who is really in charge?

While we wait for Johnson’s “road map” is Carrie the one who is really in charge?

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Pic YouTube Tory think tank demands an inquiry One of the oldest Tory organisations, the Bow Group, has made the surprising move of demanding an inquiry into the role of the PM’s fiance, Carrie Symonds. It wants this to be independent and to look at her “powers over government”. The BBC is quoting the group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, as saying: She currently holds no official role in the Conservative Party or the government, yet consistent reports in the press suggest…

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Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown?

Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown?

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Tomorrow is a massive day in the government’s efforts to control the pandemic with Johnson due to make a statement with what is being termed the “road-map” back to normality whatever that is deemed to be. At 4pm every afternoon in the UK we get the latest data and what is in the panel above will be the core information on which decisions will be taken. Johnson is only too aware of the criticisms of his failure to act early…

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Ten seats to watch at the next general election

Ten seats to watch at the next general election

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It’s never too soon to think about the next election and how that might look in detail. Let’s have a look at some of the individual constituencies that will tell the story of the night.  Yes, there is going to be a boundary review. So how on earth can we identify barometer seats now? The problem is less daunting than it looks. The latest review is going to keep seat numbers at 650, meaning that seat reallocations will be fairly measured. We know how…

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Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

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On Smarkets you can lay him for 26 In previous years when there has been a London mayoral election it has been a major political betting event. That has been much less so this year because the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, looks totally dominant and all the polling has him clearly ahead. This was one of those elections that should have taken place last May but has been put back because of COVID. The big betting story has been about the…

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Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style

Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style

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  Settling in – not even reverting – to being a normal PM will be tough, maybe impossible Boris Johnson is an oddity of a prime minister in many ways. For someone with such an impeccable establishment background, there’s a distinct air of the outsider to him. Maybe its that while he may be amusing and entertaining to many, he’s not especially clubbable; to be at the centre of attention, he has to be to some extent apart; he always…

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