How the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination

How the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination

But will a grateful nation reward to the Tories? We all know what a huge political issue vaccinations has become in Europe over the past few months and the above table from Politico shows country-by-country how many have actually been jabbed. The UK’s dominance is quite remarkable and reflects the political decisions made last year to back the Oxford/AZC programme as well as place big orders with Pfizer. What I have found quite impressive has been the way vaccination centres…

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With 6 weeks to go till the Scottish election support for independence edges upwards

With 6 weeks to go till the Scottish election support for independence edges upwards

And Sturgeon maintains good lead in YouGov’s “well/badly” ratings With all the polling ahead of the Scottish election on May 6th the two sets of numbers I am following the most are the ones on Scottish independence and Nicola sturgeon’s personal ratings. The former I believe gives a good sense of support for the SNP’s main mission and that will be reflected in the outcome in the elections. The second good area to keep track of are Sturgeon’s personal ratings….

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Rogue Lawyer

Rogue Lawyer

 “A basic rule of government is …… never set up an inquiry unless you know in advance what its findings will be.” (Sir Humphrey to Jim Hacker, Yes Minister 1980). The government must have felt confident it was following this golden – if cynical – rule when Lord Faulks QC was appointed to chair the panel inquiring into judicial review. A Conservative justice Minister (now unaffiliated peer). A lawyer who publicly criticised the Supreme Court’s decision on prorogation and who…

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Latest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the young

Latest Savanta/ComRes lockdown tracker finds declining levels of compliance particularly amongst the young

In today’s poll the percentage of those in the 16-34 segment saying they are following the advice ‘mostly’ or ‘entirely’ – is now 58% down from 65% in January. These slight changes in behaviour are not confined to just the young. Overall amongst UK adults, there is a slight decrease in those who say they are ‘entirely’ following the Government’s advice 31% for the week ending 21st March. This is a 4% drop from the proportion who said the same…

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Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating

Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating

Two of the last five polls have the lead down at 2% Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%. Maybe the novelty of the what should be regarded as a very successful vaccination programme is starting to wear…

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What makes an effective protest

What makes an effective protest

One which changes a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done? A few guidelines:- Get the law-abiding on side. Enough of them to make government MPs worry about their majorities. The poll tax riots did not change government policy. But that so many Tory voters were incensed at the proposal did worry Tory MPs and played a big part in Thatcher losing their votes. Little wonder Major ditched an election-losing policy once…

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The extraordinary battle the AstraZeneca vaccine has in being accepted across Europe

The extraordinary battle the AstraZeneca vaccine has in being accepted across Europe

The above is from a range of polls that YouGov has been carrying out across Europe on how the AstraZeneca vaccine is perceived by the public in the major countries featured. It is perhaps not surprising given the comments made by Macron and Merkel that the most negative perceptions are in their countries. Maybe it is a bit of the not invented here syndrome but the perception gap is massive and not helped by the regular reports of almost empty…

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It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…

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