“A basic rule of government is …… never set up an inquiry unless you know in advance what its findings will be.” (Sir Humphrey to Jim Hacker, Yes Minister 1980). The government must have felt confident it was following this golden – if cynical – rule when Lord Faulks QC was appointed to chair the panel inquiring into judicial review. A Conservative justice Minister (now unaffiliated peer). A lawyer who publicly criticised the Supreme Court’s decision on prorogation and who…
In today’s poll the percentage of those in the 16-34 segment saying they are following the advice ‘mostly’ or ‘entirely’ – is now 58% down from 65% in January. These slight changes in behaviour are not confined to just the young. Overall amongst UK adults, there is a slight decrease in those who say they are ‘entirely’ following the Government’s advice 31% for the week ending 21st March. This is a 4% drop from the proportion who said the same…
Two of the last five polls have the lead down at 2% Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%. Maybe the novelty of the what should be regarded as a very successful vaccination programme is starting to wear…
One which changes a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done? A few guidelines:- Get the law-abiding on side. Enough of them to make government MPs worry about their majorities. The poll tax riots did not change government policy. But that so many Tory voters were incensed at the proposal did worry Tory MPs and played a big part in Thatcher losing their votes. Little wonder Major ditched an election-losing policy once…
The above is from a range of polls that YouGov has been carrying out across Europe on how the AstraZeneca vaccine is perceived by the public in the major countries featured. It is perhaps not surprising given the comments made by Macron and Merkel that the most negative perceptions are in their countries. Maybe it is a bit of the not invented here syndrome but the perception gap is massive and not helped by the regular reports of almost empty…
In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…
Moving from a 56-44 split in favour of independence to a 50-50 one is NOT a 12% swing I do not think that I am generally very pedantic but there is one issue that really gets under my skin and that is the incorrect use of the term “swing”. A classic came yesterday in the Sunday Times when a 56-44 Scottish polling lead for independence moved to a 50-50 split. As can be seen in the panel above the Sunday…
It’s the only system that genuinely makes valid votes worthless The only exciting thing about the London mayoral election result this year is likely to be whether Sadiq Khan wins on the first vote or is forced into second preferences. He will not be close by Shaun Bailey or any of the many other candidates but may miss out on the 50% share needed to secure a first-preference win. That he might need a second round at all is because…