My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

My email from Boris suggests the Tory database is not as sophisticated as you might expect

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I have never quite worked out why the CCHQ have me on their database as a supporter and potential donor. Back in October 2009 I did attend a local public event where David Cameron was the speaker and I reported this on PB. To get entry I had to supply my email address. What I cannot understand is why I am still on the list having not responded to anything at all that might be construed as showing support. At…

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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

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Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens. Salmond had totally outshone…

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The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon

The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon

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The above chart is from the latest YouGov poll and shows the extraordinary range of views on whether those sampled had a favourable or unfavourable view of Nicola Sturgeon. The split I find most surprising is the very different numbers coming from the female segment in the sample and the male segment. I would not have expected something so striking and I just wonder whether there is a whiff of sexism about that. That Tory voters are so hostile and…

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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

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This time, surely, the Tories look set to exceed 38% This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual. It is quite difficult devising betting markets for the locals but this year the innovative Smarkets has been creative and is now taking exchange bets on the BBC’s Projected National Shares. These are the market rules: This…

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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility

Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility

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Picture: 1964 general election odds. There shouldn’t be any value bets, in theory. Every bet we place isn’t just a forecast about an election or other event. We are also making a statement; that the forecast made by the collective wisdom of every previous punter is wrong and that we have noticed before other smart gamblers can put the price right. In principle, every value bet is an opportunity someone else should already have taken. In practice, the market clearly…

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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

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The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone. The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead . The CWU was a strong…

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