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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

8/4/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens. Salmond had totally outshone…

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The extraordinary range of views of Nicola Sturgeon

7/4/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The above chart is from the latest YouGov poll and shows the extraordinary range of views on whether those sampled had a favourable or unfavourable view of Nicola Sturgeon. The split I find most surprising is the very different numbers coming from the female segment in the sample and the male segment. I would not have expected something so striking and I just wonder whether there is a whiff of sexism about that. That Tory voters are so hostile and…

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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

7/4/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This time, surely, the Tories look set to exceed 38% This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual. It is quite difficult devising betting markets for the locals but this year the innovative Smarkets has been creative and is now taking exchange bets on the BBC’s Projected National Shares. These are the market rules: This…

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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility

6/4/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Picture: 1964 general election odds. There shouldn’t be any value bets, in theory. Every bet we place isn’t just a forecast about an election or other event. We are also making a statement; that the forecast made by the collective wisdom of every previous punter is wrong and that we have noticed before other smart gamblers can put the price right. In principle, every value bet is an opportunity someone else should already have taken. In practice, the market clearly…

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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

6/4/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone. The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead . The CWU was a strong…

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Former Welsh Secretary, Cheryl Gillan, dies after long illness

5/4/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Presss Association has reported within the past hour that the Conservative MP for Chesham and Amersham, Cheryl Gillan, has died at the age of 68 after a long illness. Paying tribute to the former secretary of state for Wales, Boris Johnson said she would be sorely missed. “I’m very sad to hear the news of the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan,” said Johnson. “She was a great servant to the people of Chesham and Amersham, to the Conservative party and to…

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Papers, please

5/4/2021 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The case of Willcock v Muckle should be much better known than it is. In 1950 Mr Willcock, stopped by a policeman for speeding, was asked for his ID card. He refused. The case went to the Court of Appeal where the Lord Chief Justice, Lord Goddard, known for his ultra-conservative views, thundered against the idea that the police should be able routinely to demand ID cards for irrelevant reasons. In 1952, 7 years after the end of the war…

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Labour’s Hiraeth

4/4/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics. In 1918, Couponed candidates took 20 seats, Asquithian Liberals three seats, and Labour or Independent Labour candidates twelve seats in Wales. I mention this not from any particular desire to talk about 1918 in Welsh politics, but because it marks the last occasion to date when Labour failed to top a…

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