In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

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While all eyes in the US are focused on the Electoral College vote count which is taking place today in Europe there’ve been positive indications from the talks in Brussels with the EU and UK agreeing to keep talks on a trade agreement going. There are still differences but there does appear to be a desire on both sides to find an agreement and this is what has driven the changes on Smarkets exchange betting market as in their chart…

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Even today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3%

Even today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3%

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As the Betdarta.io chart shows the Betfair WH2020 is still open more than five weeks after other bookies settled Biden as the winner. The total of matched bets on Betfair is now heading for £1.7m BILLION which is up more than billion since the other bookies settled their markets in the weekend after the election. What has driven the continuation of this market has been the readiness of some punters to bet on Donald Trump even though the numbers are…

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Some Definitions

Some Definitions

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“Democracy in Europe” by Larry Siedentop, written when the EU was trying to draft a constitution is, despite its age, worth a read. Surprising as it may seem, given the US’s own current democratic difficulties, the outsider’s analysis of what constitutions mean, how they are arrived at, different views of democracy and how these interact with a Continent’s history, culture and religions is acute. It is one which European and British politicians would have done well to consider before embarking…

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The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have cost them their seats

The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have cost them their seats

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The failure of Trump to win re-election last month and his absolute determination not to acknowledge the fact is creating some amazing oddities for the Republican party. The latest legal appeal that went to the Supreme Court was actually backed by more than 100 members of the House of Representatives and 8 of them were from the four states where Trump is trying to annul the results. The reason they felt pressured to do this and why there has been…

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The Martingale system

The Martingale system

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It’s not exactly gone as Leavers planned, has it?  We’ve reached the stage where they’re angrily blaming everyone else for the outcome, while simultaneously trying to claim that it’s glorious.  It’s hard not to wince watching them doing the splits. For it turns out that many of the things that Remainers said were true.  It wasn’t possible to leave the EU with the exact same benefits.  It wasn’t the easiest deal in history.  The eagles aren’t coming and the German…

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Merry Christmas: rising Covid cases, No Deal Brexit, recession and maybe lockdown

Merry Christmas: rising Covid cases, No Deal Brexit, recession and maybe lockdown

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Yet the government remains surprisingly popular – for now This is the end. Not the real end, of course. There is no real end; just the start of another chapter. But as far as Brexit goes, that’s it: no more can-kicking, no more transition periods, no more rule-taking. Out. There is a slim chance that the UK and EU might, even at this late stage, strike a trade deal. The two sides are still talking, genuine and quick movement clearly…

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The Supreme Court rejects the move by Texas to overturn Biden’s victory

The Supreme Court rejects the move by Texas to overturn Biden’s victory

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Now there are no barriers to the Electoral College meeting on Monday Overnight (UK time) the Supreme Court in Washington rejected the bid by the State of Texas to overturn President-elect Biden’s election win in what must be seen as a devastating blow to the long-shot legal efforts by Trump and his supporters to stave off his electoral defeat. This comes ahead of the meeting of the Electoral College on Monday where Biden’s victory will be confirmed and hopefully be a…

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This isn’t going to go down well in White House – Trump named “Loser of the Year”

This isn’t going to go down well in White House – Trump named “Loser of the Year”

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This moves comes 5 weeks after it became clear that Trump had lost the election something that he has totally refused to accept. Such is his influence within the Republican party that 100+ party members of the House and the vast majority of members of the Senate feel unable to go on the record of acknowledging that Joe Biden will be next President. As part of his effort to delegitimise the outcome Trump has been maintaining in the key states…

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