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The value by-election bet, surely, is LAB at 26% not CON at 73% With the by-election taking place a week on Thursday any data about what happened in recent elections in the seat is well worth examining and arguably could be a better indicator than the one 500 sample poll that we have seen, The above table has been compiled by David Cowling, the BBC’s former head of political research, who painstakingly went through the detailed results of each council…

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Generally speaking Speakers do not take part in the political debate once they have retired. Generally speaking, as well they are elevated to the House of Lords on their retirement but that didn’t happen with BoJoj who over-ruled this long-standing precedent. At the time just I wrote this was a petty minded move by BoJo that could come back to bite him. Well tonight the Observer is reporting that Bercow is now a LAB member and he’s started going on…

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As PB regulars will know I spent the last five weeks here saying that the odds available on the LDs in the by-election offered great value for money. What I cannot work out was what those on the other side of the bets were thinking when they took the risk of effectively rating the Tory chances of victory as a 95% chance. My first bet on the LDs was at 7/1 when Smarkets first got a market up and I…

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Can LAB squeeze the LD vote to undermine Galloway? In a poll with the fieldwork taking place before the C&A by-election news Survation has the Tories set to offset their disaster there with a gain in Batley and Spen. Of course one seat is in the south where BoJo’s party is struggling while the other is in the north where there is a totally different political environment.. Labour’s problem here is not helped by George Galloway’s intervention though the threat…

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Inevitably after outcomes like yesterday’s by-election there are calls for a progressive alliance of some sort to be created whereby there is an arrangement so that the two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific seat stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised. This is the way it is argued that the FPTP system does not always work best for the Tories. The only problem is that this assumes that LD voters…

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Let’s not kid ourselves – this was a disaster for BoJo Lots of excuses being made this morning by those trying to explain the Tory flop in C&A but surprisingly little on its impact on the position of the PM who has been riding high in recent months over the handling of the vaccine. Sure there was Hartlepool on May 6th but that is so unlike the vast majority of Tory-held seats. C&A was a typical Tory stronghold in southern…

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A terrible outcome for BoJo and his party This is my biggest political betting win.

I have just discovered this polling from a few days back on vaccination take-up in the US which I find to be quite remarkable. That SIX times as many Republican voters say they won’t get vaccinated than Democrats ones is extraordinary. What does it say about GOP voters that there is an extraordinary political divide over something that undoubtedly saves lives. My initial thought was that this goes back to Trump and his scepticsm about COVID which appeared to continue…

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