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Some of the headlines on By-Election morning Today’s newspapers make their main headlines the latest revelations by the prime minister’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings. This follows his latest extensive blog post in which he seems to be singling out the HealthSec, Matt Hancock, who, of course, has had a key role to play in the managment of the pandemic. The term that Dom attributes to the PM of “totally hopeless” is going to be a difficult one to shake…

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It could almost be the title of a Waugh novel. Or perhaps one of those mystery-cum-romances written by upper-class lady novelists in the immediate post-war era – when driving fast cars in the South of France while sparring with strong-jawed heroes with a past was the height of sophistication. It is a bit of a mystery quite why Cressida has risen to become Metropolitan Police Commissioner. She retired in 2015 and was appointed from an obscure Foreign Office security role…

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In that other by-election that takes place a fortnight tomorrow, the Tory position remains strong with the party at a 75% chance in the betting. That’s not as good as the current Chesham and Amersham betting but still pretty clear. Whether this is a correct indicator of the final outcome is hard to say but we’ll know on Friday morning how good the betting was at predicting this week’s by-election. The hard thing about B&S is that there has been…

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According to City AM it has seen internal LD polling from Chesham and Amersham suggesting that they are on 41% against the Tory 45% for Thursday’s by-election. We have seen this form of revelation before by the party in Richmond Park and the Brecon by-elections where the numbers they said their internal surveys had them on was in fact lower than that which they achieved in the elections. The purpose is very clear – to attract tactical voters from Labour…

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So far we have not had any opinion polls on the next two Westminster by-elections – Chesham & Amersham (June 17th) and Batley & Spen (July 1st) but in each case the Tories are firm odds-on favourites in the betting. We also saw what happened at Hartlepool on May 6th and the broad assumption is that the same trends will be seen in the next two up. Certainly that is how punters are looking at them. At C&A the Tories…

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The worry that is starting to be expressed a lot more is that BoJo & co so much enjoy all the powers that fighting COVID has given them that they will be reluctant to give it up. For there will always be a reason why things shouldn’t be eased and so far at least the polls are generally supportitve. I just wonder whether a less than good result for the Tories at Chesham & Amersham on Thursday might be an…

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The PM could be moving onto dangerous ground

Although you might not have noticed it if you follow the national media there is a by-election on Thursday which has the potential to cause shockwaves. Chesham and Amersham is the first such contest since Brecon in 2019 where the LDs think they are in with a shout and have been throwing everything at the campaign. Leader Ed Davey has been there almost every day and hundreds of activists from all over the country have been working on the campaign….

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