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Ever since YouGov’s post budget poll showing a 13% Tory lead was published it has been suggested, including by me, that it was possibly an outlier. Other polls have been published in the meantime, one with the lead at just 2% and none of them of them were on the scale of the YouGov survey. Well this afternoon we’ve got the follow-up poll from the firm and experienced poll watchers, like in the Tweets above, are highlighting the fieldwork date…

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The above Ordnance Survey map shows the boundaries of the Hartlepool Westminster constituency which is set to be the first by-election of the 2019 Parliament and the first since both Starmer and Johnson became leaders of their parties. It is in a part of the world where I started my journalistic career and which I know very well. Indeed in a month’s time, assuming the lockdown easing goes to plan, I will be driving through the constituency on my way…

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Back in 2004 when this site was only a few months old we had the first PB Westminster by-election which happened to be at Hartlepool on Teesside. It turned out to be quite a big betting event with LAB holding off against a stiff challenge from the LDs. Now, as Ladbrokes have it, the Tories are strong odds on favourite to take the seat which would be a remarkable achievement for a party in government. For since 1945 the WW2…

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Those seats are up this May Yesterday I attended, online. what was one of the annual political events before the pandemic – the briefing on the coming May elections by the Tory peer, Lord Hayward. There were no elections last year and in England and Wales there have not been any local by-elections. So in large parts of Britain in the first week in May we’ll have the first chance to test the political climate based on real votes being…

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As well as the widely publicised approval and voting numbers in the Opinium poll at the weekend was the above range of questions on how Johnson and Starmer are perceived over a range of different areas. in order to show a comparison in a simplified manner I have taken the net ratings for each of them and then worked out the difference. So on whether the two are decisive or not I have taken the net figure for Johnson, minus…

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Picture BBC Lord Sumption has said some silly things lately, a reminder that even experts – once they move beyond their expertise – can be as daft as the rest of us. Still, on the issue of the government’s use of powers to bypass or limit scrutiny to the absolute minimum he is absolutely correct. Consider: –  5 hours to debate the Act implementing the UK-EU Trade Agreement, an Act containing a number of Henry VIII powers allowing the government…

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As ever YouGov is quick off the mark and has just published the above polling on the public’s reaction to the events last night in Clapham. Inevitably there is a gender divide but the striking feature is the contrast with attitudes to other protests – clearly last night struck a chord with women. So whereas the female part of the sample split 42-39 in supporting the action going ahead on the general issue of protest during the pandemic they are…

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The Mail takes up the Ed Davey call for her to go Given what the issue was that caused the Saturday evening vigil on Clapham Common the way that the Metropolitan Police have handled it looks appalling and naive and the Mail, surely, has read the public mood right in its approach for tomorrow’s front page. The LD leader, Ed Davey, became the first party head to do what appears blindingly obvious when you look at the pictures and see…

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