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Inevitably after outcomes like yesterday’s by-election there are calls for a progressive alliance of some sort to be created whereby there is an arrangement so that the two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific seat stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised. This is the way it is argued that the FPTP system does not always work best for the Tories. The only problem is that this assumes that LD voters…

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Let’s not kid ourselves – this was a disaster for BoJo Lots of excuses being made this morning by those trying to explain the Tory flop in C&A but surprisingly little on its impact on the position of the PM who has been riding high in recent months over the handling of the vaccine. Sure there was Hartlepool on May 6th but that is so unlike the vast majority of Tory-held seats. C&A was a typical Tory stronghold in southern…

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A terrible outcome for BoJo and his party This is my biggest political betting win.

I have just discovered this polling from a few days back on vaccination take-up in the US which I find to be quite remarkable. That SIX times as many Republican voters say they won’t get vaccinated than Democrats ones is extraordinary. What does it say about GOP voters that there is an extraordinary political divide over something that undoubtedly saves lives. My initial thought was that this goes back to Trump and his scepticsm about COVID which appeared to continue…

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A note of caution for blue backers is that at quite a number of polling stations there are no Tory tellers which could hamper GOTV (get out the vote) operations in the final hours.

Some of the headlines on By-Election morning Today’s newspapers make their main headlines the latest revelations by the prime minister’s former chief adviser Dominic Cummings. This follows his latest extensive blog post in which he seems to be singling out the HealthSec, Matt Hancock, who, of course, has had a key role to play in the managment of the pandemic. The term that Dom attributes to the PM of “totally hopeless” is going to be a difficult one to shake…

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It could almost be the title of a Waugh novel. Or perhaps one of those mystery-cum-romances written by upper-class lady novelists in the immediate post-war era – when driving fast cars in the South of France while sparring with strong-jawed heroes with a past was the height of sophistication. It is a bit of a mystery quite why Cressida has risen to become Metropolitan Police Commissioner. She retired in 2015 and was appointed from an obscure Foreign Office security role…

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In that other by-election that takes place a fortnight tomorrow, the Tory position remains strong with the party at a 75% chance in the betting. That’s not as good as the current Chesham and Amersham betting but still pretty clear. Whether this is a correct indicator of the final outcome is hard to say but we’ll know on Friday morning how good the betting was at predicting this week’s by-election. The hard thing about B&S is that there has been…

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