Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

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Earlier on this week there was much excitement about that tweet from UK Briefing that the SNP had shed nearly a quarter of their vote which would fit a certain narrative given the recent extraordinary contretemps between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, and the original tweet was retweeted with wild abandon. However astute poll watchers like Anthony Wells and Britain Elects plus myself pointed out that the figures quoted by UK Briefing was a subsample of 154 which is nowhere…

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Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

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The above poll finding from the well-regarded Pew Research sets out simply the challenge Republican leaders have as they meet for their annual gathering CPAC gathering in Orlando this weekend. For tomorrow Donald Trump will be the main speaker and he has already made it clear that he will use the power of his base to make himself the de facto leader. This is Trump’s party and he wants to ensure that those loyal to him will get selected for…

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Labour dis-United?

Labour dis-United?

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Does Liverpool risk triggering a breach between Labour and its biggest affiliate? Of all the elections being contested on May 6, one of the easiest to call should have been the Liverpool mayoral race. On both previous occasions, Labour won on first preferences with a lead of at least 30%. Labour holds all four parliamentary seats with majorities of at least 27,000 or 60%. It is not quite one-party territory – a fifth of the council seats are held by…

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The polling finds Brits top the world rankings when it comes to willingness to be vaccinated

The polling finds Brits top the world rankings when it comes to willingness to be vaccinated

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I find the above polling quite extraordinary and hadn’t fully appreciated how attitudes to COVID vaccination vary so much between nations. The table above is from a Tweet by the Times and shows attitude to vaccinations in a range of countries where polling has been carried out. Maybe the British view has been shaped by the fact that COVID has hit the nation very hard and in per ca-pita the nation has been one with very high rates of morality….

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Let’s start to think about a post-pandemic PB gathering

Let’s start to think about a post-pandemic PB gathering

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I have been reminded that it is now more than four years since we had a PB gathering. In recent years these had taken place in pubs in central London where Fat Steve had arranged for a specific area to be allocated to us. He did a sterling job making the arrangements but stopped doing this when he went to work overseas. Has anybody got any ideas for a future event and is there someone who is based in London…

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Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

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The chart from BetData.io shows the 6-month trend on Betfair’s next prime minister market. Sunak and Starmer remain the top two but they are no longer as strong as they were. For Rishi there needs to be a Tory leadership contest and that almost certainly requires Boris to stand aside – something over which I am becoming less convinced about. Johnson, surely wants to fight another general election. But he won’t stay in that position forever and a great strength…

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You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days

You can get evens that Biden’s approval will still be in the 50-54.9 range after 100 days

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Chart Nate Silver One of the best political bets at the moment To me one of the best political bets about at the moment is that from Smarkets on Biden’s approval rating based on the fivethirtyeight average will be on April 29th – 100 days after he became President. The current odds of it being in the 50-54.9% range are about evens. What’s striking about the chart above is how little movement there has been in the first 36 days…

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Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

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They are 2nd and 3rd in the betting in an interview with CNN the 20212 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, said that if Trump wanted to run again in 2024 he was sure that he would get the nomination. I think that this is right and that’s how the betting markets see it. On the other side 78 year old Joe Biden has not ruled out a second term and in the betting he is second favourite behind Kamala Harris to…

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