On the previous thread PBer Isam wrote that he had just bet on the CON majority for the next general election. He didn’t tell us what odds he got but at the time the party was about a 40% chance on Betfair. We know that Isam is a serious gambler and his wager will be a significant one. One reason you place a bet of this nature so far ahead is that you believe that the odds will tighten which…
As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question. The Betfair general election majority market is based on…
Punters are split All the signs are that BoJo, who reputedly hates firing people, is getting ready for a reshuffle that could happen this week. The fact that the Tories have lost their lead in two of the latest polls is adding to the speculation that we might see something happening this week. There was a flurry of activity in Downing Street yesterday which suggests that something might be afoot Betting markets are starting to emerge and although there has…
The range: £100m to $1bn Welcome to tabloid fantasy land where the Mirror, Mail and Express each have a stab on how much the 18 year old US Open Tennis winner from Bromley in Kent is going to make. As can be seen from the front pages there is a wide variation which means, I’d suggest, that none of them has a clue. The Mail’s prediction of a gong is surely right. For Emma everything is dependent on whether she…
As predicted the victory by the 18 year old from Bromley, Emma Raducanu, has seen her shoot up in December’s election for the 2021 BBC Sports Personality of the Year and is now rated as a 90% chance by Betfair punters. Her victory late last night led to Tweets from the Palace, Number 10 and even Vote Leave and no doubt this is a young lady whom we are going to hear a lot more about. Winning Grand Slam Tennis…
While just about everybody has been focused on the tennis the fortnightly Opinium poll has been published overnght with some bad news for the PM – his latest approval ratings which are featured in the chart above. As can be seen the PM now has a disapproval rating of 49% with just 32% saying that they approve. The former is the highest it has been since he entered Number 10 and the latter is the lowest. The voting intention figures…
If she wins the current 62% will seem like a bargain It is very hard to see between now and the December vote for the Sports Personality of the Year for the 18 year old tennis sensation from Bromley to be knocked off her perch as the strong odds on betting favourite. Without any doubt she is the UK sporting figure of the year and millions will be tuning in to Channel 4 this evening at 9pm. If she wins…
Chart from the University of Texas Next year the US midterms take place, with the entire House, one third of the Senate, and 36 governors up for (mostly re)election. While the House and Senate generally get the media focus given their importance for what the President can or cannot pass, an interesting story is developing in Texas. I’ll give you the spoiler up front: The bookies are getting too excited about a fun but rather unlikely scenario and the incumbent…