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This will raise questions about Brexit Several of tomorrow’s papers are reporting the challenges facing BoJo in his question to get a post-Brexit trade deal with the US. This is how the Guardian is reporting it: Britain’s hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal with the US have all but evaporated barring a dramatic change of heart from President Biden..Johnson once regarded a bilateral free trade agreement with the US as a key Brexit win, highlighting the prospects for British exporters…

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The above chart has been created from the approval rating data in the weekend Opinium poll for the Observer when Johnson was up a bit from his worst ever approval rating as PM earlier in the month. He’s trailing Starmer in most regions but that is deceptive in electoral terms. For Starmer has a significant edge in the regions where there are fewer marginals but it is much closer in England outside London. Indeed Johnson has a lead in the…

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. I have just had a small bet on Mike Pence being the 2024 Republican nominee for the White House. My reason is like with all bets is that his chances as represented by the betting understates his position. In the past few days we have been getting reports that he has set up a campaigning and fundraising operation with offices in the DC area. Twenty or so staff have been recruited already and he is already planning visits to…

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After a week in which: the UK entered into an arms alliance with the US and Australia, promptly decried in lurid terms by China and France: energy prices went up with one energy company going bust and the prospect of more to come; food companies warned of shortages of frozen food; and  the PM had a reshuffle to deliver the much promised “Levelling Up” the Sunday Times’s front page had 3 stories:- Gove ordered to sort out leaseholders’ post-Grenfell problems;…

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A quick guide to the parties may be helpful. As the system is modified PR, you get a greater choice of substantial parties than in Britain. The Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian (CSU) allies maintained a solid lead until quite recently, but their Chancellor candidate is seen as far less solid than Mrs Merkel, and in troubled times German voters really like serious gravitas. They’ve found it in the Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor candidate, Scholz, who is agreeablymoderate and…

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Given the big challenge Johnson will have next time trying to maintain as much as possible the Tory position from GE2019 Ed Davey closed his conference setting out clearly the threat his party poses in the “blue wall” seats like Chesham and Amersham. The focus will be on 10-15 targets which all went Remain, where the party was in second place last time and in almost all cases where the electorate comprise a lot of graduates. He is aiming at…

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But these numbers could mean PM Starmer As conference season begins there’s a new Opinium poll out that has CON back in the lead. This follows the trend of other pollsters that are reporting a little bit of a recovery by the Tories. Johnson’s problem is that at GE2019 his party had an 11.8% GB vote lead over LAB. Theoretically, any gap smaller than that should lead to CON losses so the latest 3% lead with Opinium indicates a 4.4%…

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Having bet on Sunak for next PM in November 2019 at 250/1 Ladbrokes this is a market I follow closely and if it comes up my £20 wager will be my biggest ever political betting win. It will outdo the £4,300 I made on the LDs in the June Chesham & Amersham by-election. Interesting that the big betting winner on this market this week has been Liz Truss who is now clear third favourite to succeed BoJo. The big question…

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