I’m sure on a visceral level the speech will go down a hit in the polls and the country but substantively in the week universal credit is cut and gas prices seem to rise ever more it might be misjudged in the future, but my betting position remains the same, the Conservatives are on course to win the most seats at the next election based on past polling precedents. TSE
Her main chance is if she becomes President before the election From the point that Biden announced that Harris was to be his VP nominee the former Senator from California has been strong in the betting for the WH2024 nomination. In my view punters are over-stating her chances. She can become President in two ways: First: if for whatever reason Biden is unable to complete his first term. In that situation she would go into the WH2024 nomination process as…
One thing we have seen from council elections and Westminster by-elections this year is how different the outcomes are in Remain and Leave seats. If Hartlepool (Leave 69.57%) was a doodle for an easy CON gain Chesham and Amersham (44.9% Leave) saw a totally different electoral dynamic. Now the Tories are hoping that Britain will return to the previous CON/LAB/LD splits at the next election. But it could be that the Brexit outcome continues to be a dominant factor and…
Leadership favourite Rishi in 5th place As we pointed out here the September CONHome Cabinet rankings seemed to be a good indicator of who would get sacked in the re-shuffle and who would do well. We have now got the latest figures which once again have Liz Truss right at the top with Grant Shapps now taking bottom place with Patel not far above. BoJo himself is six from bottom. Of course there is no leadership vacancy and BoJo looks…
Laat week the innovative betting exchange, Smarkets, had a market for a by-election for Hetton on Sunderland council which appeared part of a strategy to have regular betting markets that would be resolved in a matter of days rather than years. Well the firm has followed through with a market on this week’s Cranleigh E by election for Waverley Borough in Surrey. This is a straight fight between the Tories and the LDs who are now the odds on favourite….
But LAB still well down on GE2017 We have now got the first YouGov MRP polling of this parliament which focuses on the so called “Red Wall” seats which were the foundation of BoJo’s big victory at GE2019. This is from the YouGov report: YouGov data shows the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck in the so called ‘Red Wall’ of pivotal Northern, Midlands, and North Wales constituencies. A multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of constituency vote intention shows that the…
I dug out the above polling over the weekend after getting into a discussion on Twitter with Owen Jones and others about my firm view that negative perceptions of Corbyn were the main driver of Johnson’s landslide at GE2019. The Opinium election day poll sought to establish what was driving votes and the chart sets this out clearly region by region. Cobynistas seem to have two things they want to talk about – how well their man did at GE2017…
One defection would be the most surprising defection since Quentin Davies left the Conservative Party and joined Gordon Brown’s Labour Party, three at the same time would be extraordinary. The last time a sitting MP defected from Labour to the Conservative Party was before I was born when Reg Prentice defected in 1977. In my experience Labour Party members and MPs are most unlikely to defect to the Tory scum, that there’s three of them pondering defecting at the same…