This makes LAB’s chances look even more remote Above is the main analysis from Electoral Calculus on the impact of the new boundaries. The table seeks to show what would have happened at GE2019 if these boundaries were in place. As can be seen this is good news for the Tories and bad news for LAB, the LDs and PC. This also reinforces the point I repeatedly make that the 15% chance that the betting exchanges currently rate a LAB…
One of the reasons I love Opinium polls more than others is the way the firm presents its data. There are far far more cross-heads than with any other firm and poll watchers can spend hours just going through it. In its latest poll the Home Secretary, Priti Patel, was included in its regular approval ratings and as will not come as a surprise she has a net minus 55% with those who voted Remain in the referendum. Quite surprisingly,…
The above betting market is one we are going to see a lot more of in the next couple of years – what will be the outcome of the next UK general election. This is one that is generally most influenced by the voting intention polls of which in the past week we have had YouGov with a 10% CON lead with Opinium on 4% and DeltaPoll on just 1%. Interestingly the key player at Deltapoll is Jow Twyman who…
The odds on whether Trump will run in 2024 have now settled down as can be seen punters rate his chances at more than 71%. This is a good bet because of the way the market is defined: This market relates to whether Donald J. Trump will run for President of the United States in the 2024 presidential election. This market will be settled for yes if Donald J. Trump files a ‘Statement of Candidacy’ with the Federal Election Commission…
An interesting new polling approach from Opinium features in its latest poll and in the chart above. The sample was asked: Please imagine Labour had been in government for the last couple of years instead of the Conservatives. Do you think they would have done a better or worse job in each of the following areas? Clearly the vaccine continues to be a plus for ministers. But in the other areas polled thought LAB would do better than CON. I…
Smarkets have this market up on whether Sir Keir Starmer will face a leadership challenge before the next general election and I’m not sure what to make of this market. The polls apart from YouGov and Kantar seem to imply we’re generally in hung parliament territory and YouGov has the quirk* of having the Greens a lot higher than other pollsters. Given the year we’ve had it must worry Labour that they’ve only led in six of them, with five…
The Scottish subsample from this week’s YouGov poll amused me immensely, obviously it is a sign that disillusionment with the SNP is such that people are now are moving over to a party that doesn’t even stand in Scotland subsamples of 143 are inherently unreliable and only people who don’t understand polling or betting rely on them. Researching the polling in Scotland, proper polls not subsamples, I noticed some things that really does deserve comment. The last time a party…