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55 years ago this week, a man-made landslide of coal mining by-product killed over 100 Welsh schoolchildren. It was a tragedy. It was preventable. And it got me thinking. Aberfan. Grenfell. Piper Alpha. The Harrow & Wealdstone Crash. The Kings Cross Fire. Hillsborough. Harold Shipman. The Herald of Free Enterprise. Mad Cow Disease. Reading about these disasters, so varied in many ways, commonalities emerge. 1. Disaster has many causes, but systems are at the heart Tragedy comes from a stunning…

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The second lowest level since the referendum The same YouGov poll that had the CON lead back in double figures also had what for the government is the second-worst Brexit tracker finding on record. The latest split is in the chart above. This is a tracker that was started in the aftermath of the outcome in June 2016 and has been repeatedly asked by the pollster since. One feature we have seen in this polling is that women are taking…

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I got on at 20/1 – the same as my first C&A LD bet Smarkets have just opened their market on the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election and the initial odds are very similar to the start of betting Chesham and Amersham in May. I have had a punt on Labour at 20/1 which is the same as my first at Chesham. Quite simply this the best opportunity about at the moment for Labour to do anything that could stall…

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Eh? The latest YouGov poll has CON up to a double digit lead which as can be seen above is totally out of line with other firms. Looking at the detail the Tory share is within the same range as other firms but YouGov’s Green total is markedly higher and the LAB one markedly less. Quite why this should be is hard to say. Maybe it is a sampling issue or it could be down to how YouGov asks it…

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Labour is calling on Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe to quit her seat after she was found guilty of a campaign of harassment including threatening an acid attack. At GE2019 she stood for Labour in Leicester East but now is an independent. Whether there is a by -election depends on either the severity of her sentence or her deciding to stand down. She is, though, planning an appeal which could overturn her conviction. At GE2019 the seat saw a huge…

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This must be unprecedented. Donald Trump who lost the presidency in last November’s election has now become favourite to win it back in November 2024. This is only in the betting but it is how those who risk their money betting on political outcomes see it and the chart shows the movement that there has been since last November. I am far from convinced that Trump has a winning path to win the nomination. A problem during the primaries is…

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