Eh? The latest YouGov poll has CON up to a double digit lead which as can be seen above is totally out of line with other firms. Looking at the detail the Tory share is within the same range as other firms but YouGov’s Green total is markedly higher and the LAB one markedly less. Quite why this should be is hard to say. Maybe it is a sampling issue or it could be down to how YouGov asks it…
Labour is calling on Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe to quit her seat after she was found guilty of a campaign of harassment including threatening an acid attack. At GE2019 she stood for Labour in Leicester East but now is an independent. Whether there is a by -election depends on either the severity of her sentence or her deciding to stand down. She is, though, planning an appeal which could overturn her conviction. At GE2019 the seat saw a huge…
This must be unprecedented. Donald Trump who lost the presidency in last November’s election has now become favourite to win it back in November 2024. This is only in the betting but it is how those who risk their money betting on political outcomes see it and the chart shows the movement that there has been since last November. I am far from convinced that Trump has a winning path to win the nomination. A problem during the primaries is…
You might have to lock your cash up for just over three years but you could at current prices go into the November 2024 White House election with bets on the two main contenders at odds of 20% each. My main worry here would be Biden who could quite easily not be a runner whether on health grounds or that he doesn’t feel able to carry on. Trump is looking increasingly certain for the GOP nomination.
One of the regular markets that Smarkets is now putting up is whether Labour will get a poll lead within a set period. I got on yes in the first market which covered the whole period between August and the end of the year. This proved to be a winner for as a result of that solitary LAB lead in mid-September. Since then the betting exchange has gone on to put up regular markets and I think that the latest…
it was always going to be that the government’s delay in bringing him lock down in March last year would become a difficult political issue for Boris Johnson and his ministers. The UK has the worst death toll in Europe and it is argued that if lock-down had been brought in earlier the impact would have been lessened and many more people would have survived. The report from the Commons science and technology committee and the health and social care…
In poll after poll in the past week the message has been coming from American voters that they disapprove of Biden. One group which has seen a big fall in support is from independent voters who played such a role in helping him beat Trump eleven months ago. It is almost hard to credit now but back in June he held a net 9% approval lead – support which has just frittered away. Like just about every other leader in…
But will the Greenpeace polling change their minds? The above polling commissioned by Greenpeace represents an interesting approach to campaigning particularly because in two of the seats, Wokingham and Wycome, the incumbent MPs are out of step with their constituents as well on Brexit and they both faced strong challenges at GE2019. But unless it could be shown that their views on climate change could cost them their jobs then it is hard to see the polling changing their minds….