Are punters too influenced by Chesham & Amersham? The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson. It had appeared that there was going to be a recall petition which…
At GE2019 the Tories won 64.5% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with LAB on just 23.5% so on the face of it a “certain” CON hold. Yet that is not how it is seen. Starmer’s party is throwing a lot at the seat and clearly, the political climate for a Tory defence is far from ideal. Inevitably corruption and MPs second jobs have evolved as key issues. When the Tories held the seat at GE2019 the overall…
It has been a long time coming but I am delighted to announce that the first PB Gathering since before GE2017 is scheduled to take place on February 3rd next year. Smarkets, the betting exchange that is expanding rapidly in political markets, have agreed to host the event at their offices close to the Tower of London. Thanks to Quincel (Pip Moss) and to Matthew Shaddick of Smarkets for driving this. In the past, these events have been a great…
The Northern media gears up for a fight As seen above six leading regional newspapers from Tyneside to Manchester all had similar front pages as part of a coordinated last ditch effort to save Northern Powerhouse Rail which looks as though it will be ditched on Thursday by the government. The move by the papers should be seen as a warniing to ministers of the likely political reaction. This is a project that includes HS3 between Manchester and Leeds with…
The Biblical parable of the mustard seed teaches us that even the tiniest beginnings can grow into something very large. An example from history of this is a man who didn’t want to buy new footwear. It led to his downfall and death, an inter-empire war, and played a significant role in the rapid early rise of Islam. Emperor Maurice of the Eastern Roman Empire had a surprisingly good relationship with his Sassanid counterpart Chosroes, having sheltered the young man…
I was a bit disappointed at the weekend that the only new poll was Opinium for the Observer and that had fieldwork dates of November 10-12 compared with the ComRes November 11-12. Generally, with internet polls the bulk of the sample responds on the first day of fieldwork so it is hard to compare Opinium with ComRes. On the face of it the latter with its 40% LAB share looks like it could be an outlier but we do need…
The recent record lows in Johnson’s leadership ratings and LAB taking the lead have sparked off a flurry of activity in several betting markets including the year in which Johnson will go. Although it is down a bit “2024 or later” is still the favourite but it is no longer odds-on and as can be seen 2022 is moving upwards. I’m sure that most PBers are familiar with the Tory party leadership rules which make ousting a leader a lot…