politicalbetting.com

In polling carried out this week Redfield and Wilton asked the question – which of Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson would “be the better PM at the moment”. The results are quite striking and we have not seen anything like this before – certainly since I started PB eighteen years ago. For in a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 42% say Rishi Sunak and 24% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister….

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What happens if the Gray report is not black and white? One thing that the events of this week has reinforced in my mind is how tough it can be to get rid of a PM who is really determined to stay. The current incumbent is not going to go quietly and will use everything in his considerable armory to hang in there. The front page of the Telegraph this morning is even suggesting that he might not stand aside…

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Who would have thought only a couple of months ago that LAB would by mid-January be totally dominating CON in the House of Commons and have double digit voting intention leads? Yet there has been a total change. In the leader ratings as well Johnson has dropped sharply and in the past week in one poll to minus 48%. while Starmer is hovering around evens and in one or two polls is in positive territory. Johnson won against Corbyn at…

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Just before PMQs, I think this could be one of the grimmest ever PMQs for a Prime Minister in a long time, I don’t have enough popcorn for this. The most important question. Is this the first of many? This red wall polling might focus minds. TSE

“Too clever by half” – not a phrase instantly associated with Priti Patel. Yet her decision to make some significant substantive amendments to the Police, Crime and Sentencing Bill after the Commons had discussed it, amendments many of which were voted down by the Lords Monday night, now means that the government cannot reintroduce them when the Bill returns to the Commons. Not without introducing a fresh Bill. If they were so necessary she is now stuck. Alternatively, they were…

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The Tweet from “‘Forgotten Genius” – for many years a PB regular – hits the nail on the head. The Tories won their big GE2019 majority not because of their leader but as a result of the threat of Corbyn becoming PM. As the Tweet rightly points out Johnson was in negative ratings territory On election day in December 2019 Opinium carried out a survey. One aspect was to find out why previous Labour voters were switching and this chart,…

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The PB get together now planned for March 2nd This is being held at the Smarkets HQ close to the Tower of London. More details soon

The big political betting news tonight is a new CON Members’ poll from Opinium for C4 which has Chancellor Sunak’s chances looking very strong indeed. As we all know Tory MPs vote in a series of ballots to decide which two go to the membership in a secret postal ballot. The polling has these splits. The biggest issue with this at the moment is that there is no vacancy and it is hard to predict if there will be a…

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