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The next big question in “partygate” is whether the prime minister will actually face fixed penalty fines by the police for lockdown violations. There has been some interesting speculation about what would happen if he doesn’t actually get fined and how the public will react. For that could reignite the “one law for us one law for everybody else” narrative that has driven the sharp decline in Johnson’s ratings. Not only would it just reinforce all the public anger it…

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The above table is of the BBC’s Projected National Vote Shares that is computed by leading political scientists in the hours after the May local elections. This projection is used each year so we can get a better sense of how well the parties are doing compared with the previous year when a whole different lot of local elections were taking place. This is because there is a four-year cycle of local elections with different groups of seats coming up…

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This is a market that we have not looked at for a few weeks and as can be seen from the chart the situation remains largely unchanged on the betting markets. Most of the money is going on a Johnson exit in 2022. Clearly all of this will be shaken up whenever we see the results of the police investigation into whether the prime minister broke the lockdown regulations in 2020. There are those who argue that any sanction against…

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One of the things that makes me so angry about the way the MSM covers polling is their obsession with voting intention. Opinion polls are at their best when they attempt to do just that and seek to find out opinions and their worst when those sampled are asked to predict future actions Voting intention firstly requires those polls to establish whether those sampled are actually in a position to participate in an election. Will they be registered to vote…

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I have been in the hospital all day and only just returned home and my plan is to do something more on tonight’s Opinium poll when I have had time to study it more closely. It seems that a proportion of the GE2019 CON voters now saying don’t know have been re-allocated as Tory votes. It should be recalled that Opinium’s old way of doing it made them top pollster at GE2019

British politics has never been more febrile but, as has been pointed out on this site, a general election probably isn’t imminent. But no matter, there are plenty of other countries to provide. South Korea goes to the polls on 9 March to elect a new President. It must be a new one, since South Korea doesn’t allow multiple terms in office. And they operate a simple system, on the surface: First past the post, two main parties and some…

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