Putting Putin’s Ukraine casualties into context
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The French election looking even more likely to be a 2017 re-run
The latest polling for the first round of the French presidential election on April 10th shows Macron edging down a touch with Le Pen moving upwards. Melencon is looking the closest to the top two and his latest 15% is his best so far. The election of course is in two stages with all the above candidates in the current Wikipedia list taking part in the first round with the top two going forward to the final two weeks later….
LAB hot favourites in local election betting
Creating a betting market for the local elections is very challenging because a different group of seats comes up each year for election. Smarkets have got around this by providing an exchange bet on the projected national vote share that the BBC generally issues in its local election results coverage. Currently, LAB is the 90% favourite which is by far too high for me to be tempted and I still wonder whether Johnson’s party might surprise us. Unless something quite…
Who’ll come out of May 5th best – Johnson or Starmer?
This lunchtime the Tory campaigning expert, Lord Hayward, held his annual local elections briefing ahead of the May 5th elections. His graphic above sets out the range of different elections that are taking place and arguably the most significant are the local council elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In both cases the outcomes could impact on their continuation as part of the United Kingdom. The expectation is that LAB will do well in the London boroughs which should help…
Level of educational attainment – the great political divide
One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that the firm always asks polling respondents to state what their level of educational attainment was. I regard that as being particularly important because education has provided a great political divider. The chart above is self-evident and shows how those with degrees are significantly less likely to be Tories in sharp contrast with those who are not. One of the key numbers I look for in a constituency is the proportion of…
Special military operation, what is it good for?
My expectation was that Russia’s extension of their invasion of Ukraine would lead to a bit of a polling boost for the government based on historical precedent and the fact Boris Johnson is actually doing something right and competent yet that really hasn’t materialised, so why is that? Looking at that polling from Ipsos we can see that compared to past handling of foreign affairs this government is towards the back of the field, so that explains why there hasn’t…
Why I’m laying a 2023 general election
Yesterday The Times reported When David Canzini, the prime minister’s new deputy chief of staff, addressed advisers on Friday last week he had some surprising news. The strategist, an ally of Sir Lynton Crosby, told those present that they had to begin preparing for the possibility of a general election in the autumn of next year. While May 2024 remains the most likely date, Canzini said that the “clock is ticking”. The prime minister, he said, was “not out of the woods…
Johnson under fire for likening Ukraine to Brexit
Hardly apt given Ukraine wants to join the EU