One of the most interesting regular bets that we now have is on whether either LAB or CON will get a poll lead during a particular month. The current bet is on the Tories and as can be seen the closest they’ve got in any poll is 2%. At one stage the Tories were odds-on favourite to do this but as each day goes by without such a lead the odds change. I would still rate their chances of doing…
At a time like this when the narrative is so much against Putin’s Russia it takes a very brave, or foolhardy, Westminster Tory MP to question the actions of his government. One person in that category is reflected in the Tweet and video clip above – Daniel Kawczynski – MP for Shrewsbury. Last week his constituency Tory party said it wished to “dissociate” itself from comments made about Ukrainian refugees by Kawczynski on Twitter. Since then he has closed his…
There is a good argument for saying that the 41% on Johnson still being CON leader at the next election is a good value bet. Certainly, there has been a fair amount of turbulence on this market in recent months and now YES is on the rise. My main reason is the same as I was arguing in January when things looked a lot bleaker for the PM. For all his problems it is hard to see a majority of…
24 days to go before the first round of voting in the French election and the Macron campaign is in danger of being blown off course by rioting in Corsica and his pledge in response to look at autonomy for the island after he is reelected. This has caused his opponents to go on the offensive against him as the Times reports: Macron’s three main rightwing opponents accused him of capitulation and breaching the ancient French principle of the unitary…
Last week on one of the threads a couple of PBer got into a wager as to whether during March there would be a day when Ukraine wasn’t on three or more of the front pages. Well although we have only seen a couple of the nationals so far tonight it’s pretty certain that the release and flight to Britain by Nazanin is going to dominate just about all the papers. This will come as a huge relief for her…
When the Stalinist horrors of Putin’s attempt to wipe out Ukraine fill our TV news every night, it is … well, if not a comfort exactly ….. at least wearily familiar to see some things never changing. The Met has got into trouble again – and, yes, over women and girls. (Did you really need to ask?) First, the High Court ruled that the Met’s decisions (all 6 of them) before the Clapham Common vigil for Sarah Everard were unlawful….
We are now just over 3.5 weeks away from the first round of the French presidential election and already the pollsters are testing the water with the possible two contenders who will make it through to the final round. On April 10th a total of 12 different candidates will be on the ballot which decides which two will go forward to the second round of voting two weeks later. All the polling suggests that the incumbent French President, Macron, will…
If Johnson does not go to the country early then in two years’ time we would be just about to start the general election campaign. One thing that is hard to see happening is the Tories being as dominant in the polls next time as they were at GE2019. Then Johnson got what was a near landslide with his party securing a lead just under 12% of the GB vote. The latest polls have LAB 2%+ ahead so there has…