Macron still the red-hot favourite For all the poll movements and questions over Macron he is still leading in all the surveys and UK punters still rate him very highly. But the 93%+ betting chances of a month ago have passed and he is now an 81% punt. No doubt someone will correct me if I am wrong but in previous French elections it has been illegal to publish opinion poll details in the final phase of the campaign, Last…
One of the things about the French presidential election system is that polling can have a big impact on what actually happens. On Sunday12 contenders for the presidency are whittled down to the final two in the second round two Sundays later. All the signs are that the 2022 race will be the same as the 2017 one with the final two being Emmanuel Macron and Marie Le Pen. The big difference compared with last time is that Macron is…
Today is the second anniversary of Keir Starmer’s election to the LAB leadership and the polls have him with negative approval ratings and his party a small but robust voting intention lead over the Tories. A worrying feature from the numbers perspective is the very high level of don’t knows that pollsters get when they ask samples for their view on Starmer. In many ways the jury is still out. On the Smarkets exchange, the former DPP is rated as…
How can it be done without risking a nuclear war? The sheer awfulness of what has been going on in Ukraine over the past few days suggests, surely, that measures beyond the existing sanctions and sending military aid are going to be needed to stop Putin. My guess is that the Russian tyrant had factored in the current sanctions regime and arms support for Ukraine when deciding on the invasion. Something more needs to be done. Of course the danger…
This poll is further proof that the cost of living crisis and the government’s handling of it is very likely going to damage the Conservatives at the next general election. Pessimism on the economy hitting historic lows isn’t good news for the government but when 42% of voters think Rishi Sunak has made the economy worse since becoming Chancellor whilst just 16% say he has made the economy is not a good place for him or the government. He’s a…
Last week I noted there was the potential for the government to get a polling and campaign boost at the next general election based on their overall Covid-19 record but after seeing this polling I’m considering revising that view. What should really alarm the government is this polling was conducted before the news broke from the gold standard ONS. that a recording breaking nearly five million people in England would have had Covid-19 last week. With the end of free…
When a LAB majority government was replaced by a CON one One of the remarkable things about British politics that is not always fully appreciated is how rare it is for a party with a working majority to be replaced by another party with a working majority. This has only happened once since WW2 – at GE1970 (the first I was able to vote in and cover professionally) when the Heath-led Tories secured a majority of 30 replacing Wilson’s Labour…
Lawyers are very polite people. So polite in fact that it can be hard for the non-lawyer to realise when lawyers are being really quite rude, especially about other lawyers. And even more especially about Dominic Raab, who continues to miss even the low bars set for him. Such was the case recently over his plans to change the Human Rights Act, a perennial bugbear of the Tory right. Despite the endless ill-informed comments about this legislation from successive Tory…