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Johnson’s position as PM is looking increasingly precarious and there’s been a fair bit of betting activity on the next CON leader market. With the longstanding perceived “heir apparent” Sunak flopping last month other names have edged up with currently the man who got beaten by Johnson in 2019, ex-health Sec Jeremey Hunt, now in the favourite slot. He’s closely followed by Tom Tughendhat who has never held a ministerial position and Liz Truss. DefSec Wallace, who is regarded as…

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The final polls look clear We have not covered much the final round of voting in the French presidential election which takes place on Sunday. The reason is Macron’s victory looks very assured and this is reflected in the final polls which by French law were published late last night. As can be seen Ipsos has Le Pen 15% behind which is by far the worst survey for her. The best for the far right challenger has her just 6%…

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What we saw with the approach to yesterday’s Commons move to have an inquiry into whether BJ has been honest with the House was that the initial Tory plan went out of the window. There simply was not the support of Tory MPs to back a wrecking amendment to Labour’s motion and so in the end there was no vote. This was a huge sign of weakness that will likely be remembered. The PM’s team cannot take the support of…

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From PBer Cicero close to the Russian border (This was posted on the previous thread from a longstanding PBer) Greetings from a weary but determined Estonia. The official outlook is that we are likely to have a pretty “challenging” summer, and the latest expulsion of all Baltic diplomats in St. Petersburg and Pskov underlines the total collapse of relations with Russia. It is quite probable that the border will be closed soon. The entry of Finland into NATO before the…

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The Smarkets betting exchange is staging an event next Wednesday, April 27th, on this year’s local elections. These take place a fortnight today on May 5th. The venue will be at the Smarkets offices in London where last month PB held its 18th birthday party. If PBers would like to attend please drop an email to politics@smarkets.com. I hope to be there provided I’ve recovered OK from COVID. Mike Smithson Given the increasing political imp

As I reported a couple of days ago I am self-isolating because I have contracted COVID. As a result I am watching a lot of TV and the one fortunate thing about this has been the timing which coincides with the launch of the Netflix series “Anatomy of a Scandal” based on Sarah Vaughan’s novel. This is a courtroom drama where the defendant is an MP and minister (I assume Tory) who is accused of a rape in a lift…

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Clearly Boris Johnson is going through a very tricky period and the big question remains whether he can survive certainly until the end of the year. Until late past week I’ve taken the view that he would make it but this lunchtime I placed a bet at about 2/1 on Betfair that he would be out this year. This is not a prediction but an assessment that the odds offered value. The hurdles in the short term for Johnson are…

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Their vote could be career-defining Just imagine you are running a LAB/LD/SNP campaign in a marginal constituency where you think there is a chance at the next general election. In the current context there could be nothing better for the incumbent CON MP to vote to block the inquiry into the PM’s consistent failure to be honest. If Tory MPs follow their leader and seek to scupper the move then they too will be tarred by Johnson’s behaviour and that…

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