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As a long-standing gambler on elections, I’ve always found the day itself to be somewhat odd. The betting speculation reaches a crescendo, and judging by the betting exchanges the punting itself does so too. But it’s the only day for months where we don’t actually get any new information to update our predictions. This causes endless speculation on turnout trends, and we should really stop. The fog of law No opinion polls are released on election day, either for legal…

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In N Shropshire the yellows started 53% behind Until the coalition after GE2010 the LDs generally had a good record in this seat and if there is a by-election Davey’s party would fancy its chances. When they are in with a shout they are able to put together big effective campaigns like we saw in N Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham last year. No other party in recent times has been able to run a by-election ground game as effectively…

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Or is resignation inevitable? After all the speculation over the past few days we now know that the CON MP caught watching porn while in the Commons Chamber was Neil Parish – member for Tiverton and Honiton since GE2010. The big question is can he survive as MP? He’s already lost the Tory whip and the next few days we’ll see whether he can hold on. I make it about a 50-50 chance. In normal work situations being caught watching…

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There is a new poll out from Ipsos which has LAB with a 5% lead which is no change. As is the normal practice with the firm their regular poll each month comes out with an array of different charts and analyses. The one I am highlighting above shows the quite extraordinary change in the fortunes of Rishi Sunak since August 2020. It will be recalled that he had for a long period been the main name in the frame…

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I really love this betting chart on Johnson’s exit date which gives a snapshot of how those like me who bet on politics view his survival chances and are prepared to risk money backing their views up. For long periods the chances of him surviving the year have looked unlikely but judging by the latest movement punters now make him carrying on until 2024 or later the favourite. It was always said when things looked very bad for the PM…

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Just over a third think it was right There is is little doubt that the flagship policy of the Johnson administration has been the execution of Britain’s exit from the EU – Brexit. Well the latest YouGov Brexit tracker which has been asked every month since the referendum in 2016 is out and shows that the number supporting it down to just 37%. Those Tory voters who are left are continuing to give it their backing with 80% saying that…

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Last night Smarkets held an event to look at next week’s local elections. The areas that are having them are in colour in the Wikipedia map above. I found it a weird experience because where I live like in most parts of England there are not elections next week and it is harder to share the excitement. It is always noticeable how the mainstream media takes the locals more seriously when London elections are involved and the signs are that…

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The declining chances of a CON majority Everybody is talking about the locals at the moment but the big thing about next Thursday’s set of elections is what it will tell us about the next general election. Is Johnson’s government in spite of everything going to be able to survive or else are we going to move into the territory of a hung parliament once again? A year ago another CON majority got a huge betting spike as a result…

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