Can Johnson survive the Tory LE2022 flop?
Time to bet that there’ll be a confidence vote? What makes the aftermath of the local elections so dangerous for the prime minister is that the outcome was not predicted. The Tory losses were far in excess of what anybody thought was going to happen and it is going to take some time for this to be digested by the party. This is Johnson’s first major electoral setback and raises the question of whether he is the electoral asset the…
Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024
Given that after yesterday’s locals the prime minister looks even stronger in his position there has been a marked change in the betting on when he will actually step down. At the same time in the successor betting, Starmer has edged up because it is looking even more likely that these two will still be there to fight the general election against each other whenever that happens between now and 2024. The next electoral hurdles will be the outstanding Tory…
A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely
The big message from the local election results is that the Tories suffered a lot of losses, particularly in places in the South which the party once regarded as its homeland. Even before these elections, there was very little to indicate that LAB was heading for a majority. Quite simply the polls, now reinforced by the latest results, suggest that Johnson could lose power if there’s no major change of opinion before the general election but no LAB majority. The…
The overnight scorecard looks bad for the Tories
For LAB and the BBC LE2022 is more than just Wandsworth
If you have been watching the BBC election coverage overnight you could have been forgiven that LE2022 was simply confined to the London Borough of Wandsworth. It had about 20 times the coverage of any other election and even the other Tory London loss, Barnet, struggled to get a look in. The coverage was almost unwatchable for those like me who tune in to a results programme to get news of results of which there are hundreds and hundreds but…
LD making gains in Blue wall – LAB not making progress in Red wall
Starmer could be the leader in trouble The above is the summary from John Curtice of the way things are going so far.
The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit
Above s the latest betting chart on the year of Johnson’s exit. As can be seen the prices have drifted a touch during polling day and now 2022 is just favourite. The Tories are saying they expect losses of 500+ seats which just seems like expectation management. The two things to look for overnight are the National Vote Share projection and whether vulnerable Tory-led councils do in fact change. Remember a large number of councils are holding their counts tomorrow…