politicalbetting.com

Given that after yesterday’s locals the prime minister looks even stronger in his position there has been a marked change in the betting on when he will actually step down. At the same time in the successor betting, Starmer has edged up because it is looking even more likely that these two will still be there to fight the general election against each other whenever that happens between now and 2024. The next electoral hurdles will be the outstanding Tory…

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The big message from the local election results is that the Tories suffered a lot of losses, particularly in places in the South which the party once regarded as its homeland. Even before these elections, there was very little to indicate that LAB was heading for a majority. Quite simply the polls, now reinforced by the latest results, suggest that Johnson could lose power if there’s no major change of opinion before the general election but no LAB majority. The…

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If you have been watching the BBC election coverage overnight you could have been forgiven that LE2022 was simply confined to the London Borough of Wandsworth. It had about 20 times the coverage of any other election and even the other Tory London loss, Barnet, struggled to get a look in. The coverage was almost unwatchable for those like me who tune in to a results programme to get news of results of which there are hundreds and hundreds but…

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Starmer could be the leader in trouble The above is the summary from John Curtice of the way things are going so far.

Above s the latest betting chart on the year of Johnson’s exit. As can be seen the prices have drifted a touch during polling day and now 2022 is just favourite. The Tories are saying they expect losses of 500+ seats which just seems like expectation management. The two things to look for overnight are the National Vote Share projection and whether vulnerable Tory-led councils do in fact change. Remember a large number of councils are holding their counts tomorrow…

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By far the biggest political development in the United States in the last few days has been the leak of an opinion by one of the justices of the Supreme Court which looks as though US abortion lights laid down more than half a century ago in the case of Roe v Wade could be limited. This comes just 6 months before November’s midterm elections when the Republicans were hoping to make big gains taking back control of the Senate…

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Thursday’s elections take place against a huge amount of speculation about the future of the man who won the 2019 general election for the Tories. After partygate and other issues that have raised questions over Johnson he badly needs the Tories to do better than expectations in the elections. My view is the big problem for the Tories is not leadership but the growing evidence that people are getting poorer at a time when the new higher NI tax levels…

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