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Is this more about the general election than June 23rd? The LDs have chosen retired Army Major, Richard Foord to be their candidate in the June 23rd Tiverton & Honiton by-election where the Tories are defending a 24k majority that was achieved at GE2019. The party wasn’t even in second place then yet the money has been piling on the party following the announcement of their selection. Since the announcement, the LDs have moved up in the betting to a…

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As far as I can see Ipsos is the only pollster that screens its samples by educational attainment and I have been meaning to produce a chart like this for months. This is based on yesterday’s poll. It is repeatedly said education is a big factor and with some focus on the proportion of graduates in each constituency. Tiverton and Honiton has only about the average proportion of graduates but has a much greater proportion in the “other qualifications” category….

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But was that 1% lead poll an outlier? We have had a spate of polling in the past few days the most marked one has been YouGov’s 8% LAB lead which had CON just 1% behind after the local elections. The LDs now are doing very much better than they were a few months back when getting into double figures was a rare event. The most consistent numbers have been for the Tories in the low 30s. YouGov’s 31% share…

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Here we are, nearly 6 months on from that tearful resignation by poor inaptly-named Allegra. Since then we have had the PM’s Captain Renault-like shock at the revelation of parties at No 10 during lockdown, leaked photos, apologies to the Queen, an internal investigation, an off-then-on police investigation, numerous apologies to Parliament, accusations of lies to the Commons, a PM and his Chancellor paying a fine after being served with an FPN over attendance at a birthday party in Cabinet,…

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Unlike the previous thread this is about betting on who will be the Prime Minister after the next general election whenever that is. I think that at current prices Starmer is a good bet simply because it will not take too many seat losses for the Tories to be deprived of their majority. As I have argued before the Tories could lose power even if they end up with more votes and seats. Their problem is that it is going…

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This is really about whether there will be a change of Prime Minister ahead of the next general election which of course is due to take place in 2024. The greater it seems likely that there will be no change at the top in the Tory Party the greater the chances punters will see of Starmer being the next PM Starmer’s price would drop sharply I would suggest if it becomes clear that Johnson might face a leadership challenge –…

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One of the features of Boris Johnson’s approval ratings over the last few months is that however bad it has got with younger voters he has been in positive territory amongst the oldies. That has now come to an end. The above chart is based on the latest Redfield & Wilton polling where the fieldwork took place in Monday – so it is totally up to date. As can be seen it is the middle-aged who are most disapproving of…

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