Although Johnson “won” Monday’s vote punters are still putting money on him not surviving in 2022 and this remains the betting favourite for his exit year.. I’m not so sure about this. Johnson is not going of his own accord and it is going to take something like a huge rebellion amongst Tory MPs to shift him. Also while at Number 10 he retains huge powers of patronage which he will use, if required, to reinforce his position. This has…
The above is an anti-LD leaflet being put out by the Tories as they try to save Tiverton and Honiton in the Westminster by-election that takes place on June 23rd. Clearly the aim is to try to warn previous Tory backers of what they see as the danger posed by Ed Davey’s party. It does suggest they are taking this seriously in a way that they didn’t in Shropshire North last December. I’m not sure, however, that focussing on policy…
This compares with TMay’s 63% in 2019
Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party. One assumes that MPs will be aware of the mood amongst members in their own constituency and this could affect their decisions. In the betting a 2022 exit is…
An Opinium poll carried out this morning finds 59% saying Tory MPs should vote to remove PM with 28% saying they should vote to keep him. There were 13% saying Don’t know. Mike Smithson
TSE
Above is the front page of Monday’s Guardian with the UK political news that looks set to dominate the next few days. It appears we are very close to a VONC on Johnson and that could happen very quickly. Personally I think rebel Tory MPs are being premature and would be better waiting till after the June 23rd by-elections. The main case for the incumbent is that he claims the record of being an election winner and that would be…