I can’t decide which way the Rwanda flight ban is going to go in terms of how it impacts on public opinion – eight days before the crucial Wakefield and Devon by-elections. Two of the front pages use the word “farce” which rather sums things up This dominates the papers this morning and the fact that it is a European institution that has intervened only adds to the confusion. The ECHR, of course, is not part of the EU and…
The chart from Smarkets shows the latest betting on who will be the next Conservative leader. The big change is that Jeremy Hunt’s position at the top of the betting has now been moved and Penny Mordaunt takes his place. She maybe favourite but she’s only rated as a 13% chance just slightly ahead of Hunt with several other leading Tories not far behind. The big thing about this market is that there is no vacancy and there is not…
Betting on the Wakefield by-election has been a bit boring because it is blindingly obvious that LAB is going to retake the seat that it lost at GE2019 and the current odds of 98% are simply not tempting. The Tories, the incumbent, should be the runner up and that leaves 3rd place which could be interesting and on which Smarkets have a new market. The LDs are putting all their efforts into Tiverton and are not active here. You can…
But at 79% the LDs are still very strong favourites There’s been bit of a move upwards for the Tories in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election betting. The election takes place a week on Thursday and already many postal voters are reported to have cast their ballots. The latest on Betfair has the Tories now a 20% chance with the LDs on 79%. Certainly, Davey’s party are throwing a lot at this seat and their leaflet above sets out their…
Punters are very certain that’ll change next week In looking over the prospects for next week’s Wakefield by-election it comes as quite a surprise to discover that the last time that LAB made a by-election game was in 2012. This was at Corby in November of that year to fill a vacancy created by the CON MP, Louise Bagshaw resigning her seat for family reasons. Labour turned a 1,951 deficit at GE2010 into a majority of 7,791 – a CON-LAB…
For those us who believe in egalitarianism and democracy, having an unelected head of state is an obscenity, after all we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or prime ministers? There’s hope that when Prince Charles ascends to the throne he will do more for ending the monarchy in this country since Richard Cromwell. Whilst Prince Charles has correctly assessed Priti Patel’s Rwandan policy is awful he really should keep his thoughts to himself, it is a disturbing trend from the Royals…
I really do enjoy the betting opportunities that Smarkets give us when it comes to opinion polls. Looking at last night’s poll from Opinium which gave Labour a mere 2% lead, and with another Opinium due in a fortnight I can understand why the 20 on June being the month of the next Tory poll lead will seem attractive to many. The ongoing cost of living crisis makes me dubious on backing any Tory lead in the short term but…
In an excellent piece in the I the paper’s Chief Political Commentator, Paul Waugh, sets out the mechanics of how Johnson could face a confidence vote from the Tory grassroots. According to Waugh under an obscure clause in the party’s constitution “ just 65 constituency chairmen are needed to trigger an Extraordinary General Meeting of the National Conservative Convention (NCC), the 800-strong body that represents the Tory grassroots.” Such a vote would not be binding on Johnson but it would clearly…